论文 Publication

China has made great efforts in industrial pollution control, but for the different industrial sectors under various development stages, it is not so clear whether there is synergistic effects among them, and how it changes with the environmental policies. This study filled this knowledge gap by comiling the China Industrial Economic and Pollutant Emission data (WatSim-CIEPE) using 1.28 million individual enterprise data. The results demonstrated a power function decreasing trend for the emission per unit output value. The load reduction at different stages had synergic effects, and coastal cities reached the inflection point earlier. There is a completely opposite pattern between pollutant emission and GIOV in spatial evolution, mainly because the chemical and metal sectors with high pollutant emissions and low GIOV migrated to western China. The year gap between the implementation of the national development strategy and the break-point of gravity center variation of GIOV indicates a hysteresis effect for the influence of development policies. There may be three risks in China's industrial pollution control: (a) NH pollution gets serious in the western regions; (b) the food sector may become a new dominant pollution source; (c) the imbalance between industrial development and pollution control may further aggravate.

Road transportation accounts for 56% of India's transportation sector's CO2 emissions. Reaching carbon neutrality before 2070 requires the deep decarbonization of this sector. This study assesses the potential of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel-cell vehicles (FCV) as the least-cost pathway toward carbon neutrality. We estimate the future demand for passenger and freight services and evaluate the impact of EV policies using the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment, and Economy for Sustainable Development/Technology (IMED/TEC). The study covers road transport emissions, energy, and air pollution transitions under four scenarios, including reference, low, medium, and high penetration of BEV and FCV, which align with the decarbonization target agreed upon under India's national policy. Results show that the carbon neutrality target would be challenging with BEV alone in road passenger and freight transportation because it is less efficient. Combined penetration of BEV and FCV can reduce air pollutant emissions significantly. Operative implementation of FCV could diminish more than 96% of the total road transport CO2 emissions. The analytical framework also proposes local climate change policies towards a carbon neutrality strategy to escalate the share of BEV and FCV in the Indian road transport sector.