The Impact of COVID-19 on Employment and Income of Vocational Graduates in China: Evidence from Surveys in January and July 2020
Authors: Xiao Liang, Scott Rozelle, Hongmei Yi
ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic shocked the economy of China in early 2020. Strict lockdown measures were implemented nationwide to prevent the further spread of the virus. During the lockdown period, many economic activities were affected, which had repercussions for the nation’s overall employment. Vocational graduates were among the most affected by the crisis. To estimate the causal effects of COVID-19 on the full-time employment of vocational high school graduates as well as their monthly income and hours worked by week, we exploit variations in the intensity of the pandemic in time and across space using survey data from vocational schools from six provinces in China. The results of the difference-in-differences (DID) estimates indicate that being located in counties with high pandemic intensity significantly reduced both the employment in full-time jobs of vocational graduates as well as their monthly income. Our study’s analysis demonstrates that the effects of COVID-19 on the labor market can be attributed to the large-scale contraction of labor demand of the enterprises that were hiring vocational graduates. To cope with this situation, vocational graduates took various measures, including reducing consumption, drawing on their savings, searching for new jobs, taking on part-time jobs, borrowing money, and attending new training programs. In addition, the empirical analysis finds that there were heterogeneous effects with respect to gender, family social capital, the industry in which the vocational graduate was participating, and whether the individual was in a management position.
职业教育应该强调公共基础课程吗？——来自中等职业学校毕业生的证据
作者：马明艳 黄明星 梁潇 易红梅
摘要：过去十年，我国教育部门愈发重视中等职业教育中的公共基础课程，这与国际社会的观点相呼应，即公共基础课程对于提高中职学生适应快速发展的社会的能力至关重要。但是，我国普遍存在的认知误区是作为普通教育体系的失败者，中职学生应该通过学习更多的专业技能课程而不是公共基础课程以谋求出路。基于2020年1月收集到的我国6省26所学校2013级中职毕业生数据，本文将使用（有序）logit模型及专业和省份固定效应模型探究公共基础课程与学生升学及劳动力市场表现之间的关系。结果显示，公共基础课程与中职学生毕业后升入高等教育之间存在显著的正相关关系；并且，尽管公共基础课程与中职学生毕业后的第一份全职工作无关，但与当前的就业状态、月收入和管理职位显著正相关。本研究实证验证了人力资本理论中关于不同类型人力资本的论述，为当前正在进行职业教育改革的发展中国家设置不同类型的课程比例提供了参考依据。
关键词：公共基础课程；中等职业教育；高等教育；劳动力市场表现；（有序）logit模型