科研成果 by Year: 2021

2021
Ma R, Li K, Guo Y, Zhang B, Zhao X, Linder S, Guan CH, Chen G, Gan Y, Meng J. Mitigation potential of global ammonia emissions and related health impacts in the trade network. Nature Communications [Internet]. 2021;12:6308. pdfAbstract
Ammonia (NH3) emissions, mainly from agricultural sources, generate substantial health damage due to the adverse effects on air quality. NH3 emission reduction strategies are still far from being effective. In particular, a growing trade network in this era of globalization offers untapped emission mitigation potential that has been overlooked. Here we show that about one-fourth of global agricultural NH3 emissions in 2012 are trade-related. Globally they induce 61 thousand PM2.5-related premature mortalities, with 25 thousand deaths associated with crop cultivation and 36 thousand deaths with livestock production. The trade-related health damage network is regionally integrated and can be characterized by three trading communities. Thus, effective cooperation within trade-dependent communities will achieve considerable NH3 emission reductions allowed by technological advancements and trade structure adjustments. Identification of regional communities from network analysis offers a new perspective on addressing NH3 emissions and is also applicable to agricultural greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
Chen Y, Zhang L, Henze DK, Zhao Y, Lu X, Winiwarter W, Guo Y, Liu X, Wen Z, Pan Y, et al. Interannual variation of reactive nitrogen emissions and their impacts on PM2.5 air pollution in China during 2005–2015. Environmental Research Letters [Internet]. 2021;16:125004. pdfAbstract
Emissions of reactive nitrogen as ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ), together with sulfur dioxide (SO2), contribute to formation of secondary PM2.5 in the atmosphere. Satellite observations of atmospheric NH3, NO2, and SO2 levels since the 2000s provide valuable information to constrain the spatial and temporal variability of their emissions. Here we present a bottom-up Chinese NH3 emission inventory combined with top-down estimates of Chinese NO x and SO2 emissions using ozone monitoring instrument satellite observations, aiming to quantify the interannual variations of reactive nitrogen emissions in China and their contributions to PM2.5 air pollution over 2005–2015. We find small interannual changes in the total Chinese anthropogenic NH3 emissions during 2005–2016 (12.0–13.3 Tg with over 85% from agricultural sources), but large interannual change in top-down Chinese NO x and SO2 emissions. Chinese NO x emissions peaked around 2011 and declined by 22% during 2011–2015, and Chinese SO2 emissions declined by 55% in 2015 relative to that in 2007. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulations, we find that rising atmospheric NH3 levels in eastern China since 2011 as observed by infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer and atmospheric infrared sounder satellites are mainly driven by rapid reductions in SO2 emissions. The 2011–2015 Chinese NO x emission reductions have decreased regional annual mean PM2.5 by 2.3–3.8 μg m−3. Interannual PM2.5 changes due to NH3 emission changes are relatively small, but further control of agricultural NH3 emissions can be effective for PM2.5 pollution mitigation in eastern China.
Liu Z, Ying H, Chen M, Bai J, Xue Y, Yin Y, Batchelor WD, Yang Y, Bai Z, Du M, et al. Optimization of China’s maize and soy production can ensure feed sufficiency at lower nitrogen and carbon footprints. Nature Food [Internet]. 2021;2:426–433. pdfAbstract
China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Ypot) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Yatt) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035—while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%—with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year.