科研成果 by Year: 2023

2023
Ding X, Yuan L, Zhou Y. Internet Access and Older Adults' Health: Evidence from China. China Economic Review [Internet]. 2023;82:102047. 访问链接Abstract
In the context of China's rapid population aging and internet expansion, this study examines the impact of information and communication technologies on the of older adults’ health. Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011–2018, we find that internet access improves older adults' self-reported health, mental health, and activities of daily living (ADL). Further investigations provide evidence for several underlying mechanisms, including improving social participation, promoting healthy behaviors, and encouraging intergenerational interactions. Heterogeneity analyses show that disadvantaged groups, such as those with any ADL difficulty and without social participation or a spouse, benefit more from internet access.
Yang M, Xia X, Zhou Y. Abandoned children in China: the son-preference culture and the gendered-differentiated impacts of the one-child policy. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications [Internet]. 2023;10(532):1-10. 访问链接Abstract
China has experienced an upsurge in child abandonment since the late 1970s in parallel with its one-child policy (OCP) and market reforms. Due to the scarcity of individual-level data, the literature focuses on informal adoption and child trafficking. This study first demonstrates the spatial-temporal trends of child abandonment across over 100,000 self-reported cases spanning 40 years in China collected from an internet platform. We then examine how the OCP and the long-established clan culture influence the incidence of child abandonment at the provincial level. We further compare whether the influences vary across genders. The results indicate that a tougher OCP penalty increases child abandonment, particularly the abandonment of girls. The influence of the OCP on girl abandonment is weaker in provinces with a strong clan culture, where sex ratios at birth are more unbalanced due to an increased incidence of gender-selective abortions.
黄炜, 任昶宇, 周羿. 退休制度、劳动供给与收入消费动态. 经济研究 [Internet]. 2023;(1):141-157. 访问链接AbstractPKU 
本文基于2010-2012年和2014-2016年的中国城镇家户调查月度数据,用事件分析法系统地研究了我国城镇居民的劳动参与、收入消费以及不平等在退休年龄前后的季度动态变化。首先,在达到法定退休年龄后的前三年,约14%的男性和约22%的女性在领取养老金的同时会继续参与劳动力市场。这种“退而不休”的现象在养老金收入较低的群体中更为普遍。其次,家庭收入在退休年龄前后并未减少,在女性样本中还上升了7%。家户消费在退休年龄后上升了4%,消费扩张主要集中在医疗和食品等类别。最后,分位数回归结果显示,同一出生队列内部的收入不平等在达到退休年龄后有所缓解,消费不平等则进一步加剧。本文的研究发现为退休政策改革的机制设计提供了依据,也为预判改革的福利后果提供了参考。
周伊敏, 魏旭, 周默涵, 周羿. 机遇还是挑战?宏观冲击对微观创新的影响——基于企业异质性视角的分析. 中国工业经济 [Internet]. 2023;(1):38-56. 访问链接AbstractPKU 
当前国际环境动荡,外部冲击不断,中国在创新驱动经济高质量发展上面临更多挑战和更大不确定性。本文构建了一个引入创新能力异质性的企业决策模型,并内生化企业的研发投入和生产率。在此基础上,本文从供给侧和需求侧两个方面、长期和短期两个视角,考察了宏观冲击对企业研发及生产率的影响。本文发现,当供应链上游成本上升,短期来看,高创新能力的企业会增加研发投入和提高生产率,而低创新能力的企业会减少研发投入和降低生产率。供应链成本上升在企业层面上的长期效应与短期效应相似,但强度更高。随着企业间竞争加剧、行业壁垒上升,整个行业的平均生产率会有所提升。这意味着,长期来看,成本上升的压力可能会刺激企业创新、推动产业升级。另一方面,短期来看,总需求下降对所有企业的研发投入和生产率均有负面影响。长期来看,总需求下降在企业层面不会造成影响,也不改变行业结构,但会使行业规模缩小。本文为在如何在复杂多变的宏观环境中推动企业创新和实现经济高质量发展提供了微观分析和政策启示。
Wei X, Xiao X, Zhou Y, Zhou Y. Spillover Effects between Liquidity Risks through Endogenous Debt Maturity. Journal of Financial Markets [Internet]. 2023;64:100814. 访问链接Abstract
We construct a model of debt maturity structure and show how a firm trades off between the costs of market liquidity risk and rollover risk. On one hand, the issuance of long-term debt reduces market liquidity because it increases the supply in the secondary debt market, which increases the cost the firm bears for long-term debt (i.e., the cost of market liquidity risk). On the other hand, the use of short-term debt increases the likelihood of early liquidation, which raises the cost of short-term debt for the firm (i.e., the cost of rollover risk). We show that market liquidity risk and rollover risk the firm is exposed to are connected through endogenously determined debt maturity structure. An exogenous shock (e.g., shrinkage of market depth or an increase in risk-free interest rate) that directly increases one type of liquidity risk would induce the firm to alter debt maturity structure and partially offset the impact of the shock by raising its exposure to the other type of risk (i.e., spillover effects exist). We also show that the spillover from market liquidity risk (rollover risk) to rollover risk (market liquidity risk) is more (less) pronounced during economic recessions or in the case of competitive firms.
胡龙海, 黄炜, 任昶宇, 周羿. 风险感知、网络搜索与消费扭曲. 经济学 [Internet]. 2023;23(2):425-446. 访问链接AbstractPKU 
基于我国城镇住户月度面板数据和百度指数数据库,本文以地震为例,首次考察了风险感知如何影响家户消费行为和相关机制。结果表明,地震搜索指数每上升一个标准差,当地当月人均消费支出下降25元,且信息传播是导致搜索上升和消费下降的主要原因。灾难性事件通过改变居民主观风险造成消费扭曲,且影响甚至可能超过了直接经济损失。本文定量估算了对灾难性事件的风险感知造成的经济损失,能为政策制定者提供决策参考。