Objectives: We aimed to examine how COVID-19 incidence is associated with depressive symptoms in China, whether the association is transient, and whether the association differs across groups. Methods: We used a longitudinal sample from 2018 and 2020 waves of the China Family Panel Study. We constructed COVID-19 incidence rates as the number of new cases per 100,000 population in respondents’ resident provinces in the past 7, 14, and 28 days when a respondent was surveyed. We performed linear or logistic regressions to examine the associations, and performed stratified analyses to explore the heterogeneity of the associations. Results: Our sample included 13,655 adults. The 7-day incidence rate was positively associated with the CES-D score (coef.=2.551, 95% CI: 1.959-3.142), and likelihood of being more depressed (adjusted odds ratio=6.916, 95% CI: 4.715–10.144). The associations were larger among those with less education, pre-existing depression, or chronic conditions. We did not find any significant association between the 14- or 28-day local incidence rates and depressive symptoms. Conclusion: The impact of COVID-19 incidence on mental health in China’s general population was statistically significant and moderate in magnitude and transient. Disadvantaged groups experienced higher increases in depressive symptoms.

This study examines whether people smoked more under the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) closure policies which trapped them at home with their families. In such circumstances, the pleasure from smoking could be more tempting than usual, but at the same time smokers’ families are more likely to be victims of passive smoking. This study uses temporal and regional variations in policy strengths with data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project (OxCGRT) to examine the impact of COVID-19 closure policies on smoking behaviors. With longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2018 and 2020, we find diminished smoking behaviors among Chinese male adults when the government implemented strict public health policies for the COVID-19 pandemic. People with more conscientiousness personality traits or stronger pro-family attitudes tend to smoke less as policy stringency increases.

上世纪80年代以来，我国经历了长期的性别比失衡，表现为男性数量远远多于女性。面对性别比失衡，父母如何选择子女的受教育水平呢？本文发现，性别失衡使农村及社会经济地位低的家庭中的男孩受教育水平下降，不管是绝对意义上还是相对于女性；而城镇及高社会经济地位的家庭中的男孩受教育水平上升，城镇女性的受教育水平不受影响。这意味着性别比失衡扩大了城镇和农村男性人力资本的差距，进一步固化了社会分层。由于教育决策通常在结婚前数年完成的，我们进一步探索了家户是如何预测婚姻市场供求情况的。研究结果发现，父母在进行人力资本投资时，所依据的是做决策时婚姻市场适婚男女供求情况，而不是根据与子女出生年份相近的队列的性别比，尽管后者更接近子女结婚时的婚姻市场性别比。父母的预测倾向于低估子女结婚时适龄女性缺少的程度，这意味着当前的人力资本水平可能偏离家庭合意的水平。

冲突的区域聚集现象引发了学者对冲突跨国扩散的研究。但现有研究主要集中在内战或武装叛乱等暴力冲突上，对弱暴力甚至非暴力的社会冲突的跨国扩散研究较少，其中量化研究更是稀缺。本文基于综合危机预警系统事件数据库（ICEWS）中的160多个国家在1995-2012年间的冲突事件资料，采用异质扩散模型，检验了空间距离、共同语言和经济往来对社会冲突扩散的影响。研究发现，基于文化相似性认同的文化联结机制在冲突扩散过程中扮演重要作用，即社会冲突更容易在那些使用共同语言的国家之间扩散，且地理上的邻近将强化这种扩散；基于经济往来的关系联结机制仅仅在地理上邻近的国家之间产生作用，即同属一个区域贸易协定的邻国之间存在冲突扩散效应，同属一个区域贸易协定的非邻国之间不存在显著的冲突扩散效应；单纯地理上邻近的国家也没发现显著的冲突扩散效应。这一研究从理论和实证层面深化了对冲突扩散机制的认识，为评估政治风险、制定预防和应对措施提供了参考。

本文以党员家长对其子女所在班级其他同学的溢出效应为例，研究了中国社会环境下社会资本在人力资本形成中所发挥的作用。本文利用“随机分班”政策作为自然实验，发现班级中的党员家长比例对学业成绩有正向的因果效应，而且这种效应主要集中在那些家长不是党员的学生群体中。具体来说，班级党员家长比例每提高1个标准差（0.11），家长不是党员的学生的标准化语文、数学和英语成绩会显著提高1.82分、1分和1.30分。进一步的机制检验发现，党员家长会从班级学习氛围、教师态度、家师关系、以及学生和家长对高等教育的期待和信心等几个方面对班级环境产生正面影响。

This study uses the data of a nationally representative survey in China to investigate the role of financial literacy overconfidence in investment fraud victimization. The study finds that male, wealthy, and educated respondents tend to be more confident about their financial knowledge. Moreover, overconfident respondents are more likely to believe that the abnormally high returns claimed in two hypothetical investment opportunities are attainable.

This paper provides a new explanation for birth-order effects by considering the genetic similarity between siblings. We develop a quantity--quality trade-off model in which parents form their expectations of possible future children's endowments by observing the performance of their existing children. Our model shows that having a talented first child may weaken parents' incentive to have additional children due to the substitution effect. However, it also may encourage a second birth due to the signaling effect. Without assuming that children of a specific birth order have a biological advantage or more parental attention, this model predicts a birth-order gap in parents' human capital investment, the magnitude of which depends on the endowments of the first child and its predictive power as a signal of the potential endowment of a possible second child.