科研成果 by Year: 2018

2018
Zhao X, Zhou Y, Tan H, Lin H. The Spillover Effects of Children's Political Status on Parent's Health in China. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health [Internet]. 2018;72(11):973-981. 访问链接Abstract
Background Due to the sustained increases in life expectancy over the past half century, the elderly today will receive supports from their children for a longer period than ever before. Therefore, understanding the spillover effects of children's socioeconomic status on parents' health becomes increasingly important for both scholars and policy makers. Methods The Ordinary Least Squares regression is applied to the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011, a national representative dataset including approximately 10 000 households and 17 600 middle-aged and elderly respondents. The Sobel test is used to examine the mediation role of social integration. Results The elderly who have a cadre child reported better health (coefficient=0.1347; 95% CI 0.067 to 0.202), had fewer activities of daily living (ADLs) limitations (coefficient=−0.1289; 95% CI −0.216 to −0.042) and were more socially integrated (coefficient=0.2321; 95% CI 0.103 to 0.361). Such effects are mainly driven by the parents of higher-ranking cadres. For the parents of higher ranking cadres, the Sobel test suggests that 12.6% of the total effects on self-reported health and 21.9% of the total effects on ADL limitations are mediated by the increase in parents' social integration. Conclusion The findings suggest positive spillover effects of children's political status on parents' health. The benefits of having a cadre child are at least equivalent to the rural–urban gap in health and even stronger for the parents of higher ranking cadres. One potential explanation for such spillover effects is that a child's political status can improve parents' community involvement and social interactions.
谭华清, 周羿, 赵波, 魏旭. 教育对于城乡劳动力转移的机制及其影响. 财经研究 [Internet]. 2018;44(9):66-79. 访问链接AbstractPKU 
劳动力的空间自由流动是一个国家长期经济增长的重要推动力。对中国而言,自1978年以来,近40年经济持续高速增长背后的机制是成万上亿的农村劳动力流向城市部门的宏大变迁。随着中国劳动力增量的逐步下降甚至为负,如何盘活农村剩余劳动力促进城乡之间劳动力的流动是我国目前面临的重要挑战。文章基于中国居民收入调查数据库(CHIPS2002和CHIPS2013),从教育的外部性视角系统分析了农村地区教育程度的提高是否会促进当地农民外出就业。研究发现,平均教育程度的增加对外出就业存在两种相反的作用力。首先,农村地区平均教育程度的提高会促进当地企业的发展,进而抑制当地农民外出;另一方面,当地平均教育程度的提高会增强农民工社会网络对农民工外出就业的促进作用,进而促进当地农民外出就业。因此,农村地区平均教育程度对外出就业的影响取决于当地企业的发展水平以及当地的农民工社会网络的强弱。文章最后使用工具变量法等稳健性检验的结果也支持了上述研究发现。文章的政策含义是:农村地区的发展政策可能也要因地制宜。对当地企业发达或有潜力发展乡镇企业的地区,可能提高农村教育和相关技能培训,鼓励农民回乡创业更好;而对其他地区,可以完善农村社会网络,增强乡民联系,以更好地促进农民外出。
陈秋霖, 许多, 周羿. 老龄化背景下人工智能的劳动力替代效应——基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据的证据. 中国人口科学 [Internet]. 2018;(6):30-42. 访问链接AbstractPKU 
文章基于跨国面板数据和中国省级面板数据,构建二阶段最小二乘回归模型,通过研究人口老龄化如何影响人工智能应用及人工智能应用如何影响经济增长,考察在老龄化背景下,人工智能对劳动力是否存在替代效应和存在怎样的替代效应。研究结果表明,人口老龄化导致的劳动力短缺会促使一个经济体更多地应用智能化生产,人口老龄化是人工智能发展的诱因;智能化生产对当地生产总值有正向影响,有助于抵偿人口老龄化所造成的经济增长放缓,人工智能是应对老龄化的重要工具。当前人工智能发展属于"诱导式创新",与劳动力之间是替代关系,而且是"补位式替代",不是"挤出式替代"。如果维护好这些特征,人工智能将在未来老龄化大背景下为中国经济做出更大的贡献。