高明, 张青萍.
迁移家庭的金融决策:理论分歧与实证检验. 研究手稿.
Abstract提升迁移家庭福利是推进以人为核心的新型城镇化战略的关键议题,而金融决策是影响家庭福利的核心决策之一。背景风险理论预期,迁移后家庭面临更多不确定性,应当降低风险承担;而前景理论则认为,迁移者的现状低于参照点时将产生冒险动机。基于理性框架与行为视角的理论预测分歧,本文使用中国家庭金融调查数据进行实证检验。结果显示,相比本地家庭,迁移家庭、特别是非获户籍的迁移家庭对风险性金融资产的投资概率和持有比例均更高,并且财富水平较低的迁移家庭风险投资增加更多。这一结果与前景理论相符,与背景风险理论相悖。不同维度的实证分析佐证了前景理论的解释:迁移后,在迁入地财富水平较低的迁移家庭风险偏好上升,而财富水平较高者风险偏好没有显著变化;对短期经济形势预期悲观、实际收入与期望差距较大、自我感知生活水平相对较低、迁入地贫富差距较大和教育、医疗、住房等公共服务水平较低时,迁移家庭的风险投资倾向更高。进一步研究表明,迁移家庭的金融资产配置更为分散,但风险性金融资产配置更为集中;更多的风险投资并没有带来更多收益,反而抑制了消费。本研究有助于深入理解迁移对家庭金融决策和福利的影响,对推进以人为核心的新型城镇化具有重要的政策涵义。
高明, 刘玉珍, 张宇.
金融教育:理论基础与实验证据. 研究手稿.
Abstract学术界和政策制定者希望通过金融教育提升金融素养,改善家庭和社会福利。金融教育在英文文献中已有非常丰富的研究,但尚未引起中文文献的足够重视。本文系统回顾了发表于权威英文学术期刊的随机控制实验和准实验金融教育文献,并结合关于金融素养的理论和实证研究,探讨金融教育的有效性及其影响因素。本文发现,学术文献虽然有一定分歧,但总体上认为金融教育显著提升金融素养,改善储蓄、借贷、保险、退休计划等金融行为,有助于家庭财富积累;教育时点、内容、方式是影响金融教育效果的重要因素。早期的金融教育和金融决策对财富积累具有持续性的影响;数学训练可以改善认知水平,是金融教育的基础;持续和个性化教育、支持和激励有助于可持续的行为变化。基于实验和准实验证据,本文提出改善金融教育的政策建议,并讨论了进一步研究方向。
Ai, Meitong; Gao M; JR.
Health Cost Risk, Informal Insurance, and Annuitization Decisions, in
2023 American Risk and Insurance Association (ARIA) Annual Meeting. Washington DC; 研究手稿.
全文链接 SSRN: abstract=4567635AbstractThis paper provides the first piece of empirical evidence regarding the impact of health cost risk on individuals' annuitization decisions. We find that health cost risk increases the probability of individuals' pension participation but decreases the amount of pension contributions. We show that the substitution effect of informal insurance on pensions leads to these seemingly contradictory results. The impact of health cost risk on pension participation and contributions is negative and consistent with the mainstream theory after accounting for the effect of informal insurance. The substitution effect of informal insurance on pensions is stronger, and thus mitigates the impact of health cost risk more pronounced for households that have better-educated children, lower incomes, and more informal social networks and in regions that have a higher male–female ratio, that have higher mobility, or are less developed; but this substitution effect does not differ depending on their children's gender. This study improves our understanding of the relationship between health cost risk and individuals' annuitization decisions as well as the role of informal insurance in this relationship.