Snowmelt Risk Telecouplings for Irrigated Agriculture

Citation:

Qin Y, Hong CP, Zhao HY, Siebert S, Abatzoglou JT, Li S, Munroe DK, Zhu T, J DS, Mueller ND, et al. Snowmelt Risk Telecouplings for Irrigated Agriculture. Nature Climate Change. Forthcoming.

摘要:

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly, or indirectly via global trade, affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on snowmelt. Here we integrate sub-annual irrigation and snowmelt dynamics and a model of international trade to assess the global redistribution of snowmelt dependencies and risks under climate change. We estimate that 16% of snowmelt used for irrigation is for agricultural products traded globally, of which over 70% is from five countries. Globally, we observe a prodigious snowmelt dependence and risk diffusion, with particularly evident importing of products at-risk in western Europe. In Germany and U.K, respective local fraction of surface-water-irrigated agriculture supply exposed to snowmelt risks could increase from negligible to 16% and 10% under a 2°C warming. Our results reveal the trade-exposure of agricultural supplies, highlighting regions and crops whose consumption may be vulnerable to changing snowmelt even if their domestic production is not.