科研成果 by Type: Conference Paper

As the popularity of hierarchical point forecast reconciliation methods increases, there is a growing interest in probabilistic forecast reconciliation. Many studies have utilized machine learning or deep learning techniques to implement probabilistic forecasting reconciliation and have made notable progress. However, these methods treat the reconciliation step as a fixed and hard post-processing step, leading to a trade-off between accuracy and coherency. In this paper, we propose a new approach for probabilistic forecast reconciliation. Unlike existing approaches, our proposed approach fuses the prediction step and reconciliation step into a deep learning framework, making the reconciliation step more flexible and soft by introducing the Kullback-Leibler divergence regularization term into the loss function. The approach is evaluated using three hierarchical time series datasets, which shows the advantages of our approach over other probabilistic forecast reconciliation methods.

The era was a form of "uninterrupted, irreversible, paratactic, cumulative, endless, and directional" time-reckoning concept (Kosmin 2018: 22) widely adopted in the Roman Greek East: there were provincial eras counting from the foundation of a province, as well as more customised epochs such as the 'Freiheitsära' of Amisos (Leschhorn 1993: 463-465), and the 'Kolonieära' of Sinope (Leschhorn 1993: 150-154). Curiously, Roman Sinope began with the colonial epoch of 45 BCE, but turned to a Lucullan epoch of 70 BCE in the Severan period (Kubitschek 1908: 67-72; Grant 1946: 12, 251; Leschhorn 1993: 151-162). Leschhorn suggested reasons for the switch, including internal rivalry and 'Gräzisierung' (Leschhorn 1993: 162). This paper explores the Graecisation hypothesis by first asking: why the Lucullan era? What was there to gain from the switch? Viewed from historical context, the Lucullan era happened to have been the time-reckoning method of Amastris, a well-developed regional hub in the second to third centuries CE (Marek 1993: 97-100; Brenier 2007), including contributions to several koina in Asia Minor. This paper suggests that Amastrian development may have influenced Sinopean institutions. Syncing time may be one way to maintain relations with a maritime hub with deep historical associations.  A second question this paper asks is how "Graecising" was the adoption of the Lucullan era. The Hellenistic amphora handles produced at Sinope stamped with the Seleucid era suggest that the use of this chronographic method predated the second century BCE (Saprykin & Fedoseev 1999: 135-143; Fedoseev 2019: 16-17). Instead of Caesarian colonists adopting a Hellenising time-reckoning, it may be that the Sinopean establishment modified (or revived) its epoch to mark both the new 'colonial' form of the Sinopean polity and the continuity of pre-colonial institutions (Magie 1950: 1267 n. 33; cf. Strab. 12.3.11 C54). In short, Sinope's changing eras may be viewed from an adaptive point of view.

The newly discovered gubernatorial edict from Laodicea, in which the proconsul of Asia (likely Marcus Ostorius? Scapula) issued a series of orders, contains references to precedents from his predecessors, including edicts from the proconsul Cornelius Tacitus and his deputy Saenius Sabinus, and a letter from the proconsul Vicirius Martialis. Why did Martialis issue a letter instead of an edict? What was the function of Martialis' correspondence, and what did it achieve? In Oliver, Greek Constitutions, pp. 20-21, Augustus and later principates continued to use written proclamations in edict form as a way of communicating with provincials, a tradition practiced by Roman magistrates in the Republic. We also learn that edicts were essentially "open letters to whom it might concern," and were not unlike epistles in terms of preparation, at times not carefully distinguished by the secretaries that prepared them. If there were edict and epistolary forms, it is not immediately clear how they differed in function and perception, both from the perspective of the senders and their intended recipients. Gubernatorial communications have received treatment by Meyer-Zweiffelhoffer (2002), Kokkinia (2003, 2004) Lavan (2013). Kokkinia states that there are approximately 90 examples, and they point to the pattern in which most governors were acting upon local requests to interevene (Kokkinia 2004: 49). If the purpose was to intervene, at what point will an epistle be no longer enough, but an edict will? This paper will first use Paulus Fabius Maximus' letter-edict to discuss a classical case in which an attempt to write a letter took a sinister turn towards an edict. We will then examine a range of cases including those from the Opramoas dossier to consider the various epistolary approaches that the Roman governors took in responding to local situations. The paper will use this assembled corpus to interpret the Vicirius Martialis' letter from both its immediate communicative context and also the general tradition in official correspondence. This paper also touches on the broader question of why governors need to write letters, when they could have just issued edicts, and what letters can do that edicts could not.

奥古斯都三度受元老院与人民任命，出任法律道德监管（curator legum et morum, 19 BCE, 18 BCE, 11 BCE, cf. RGDA 6, Dio Cass. 54.30.1, Suet. Aug. 27），推动婚姻立法，塑造新罗马社会，但多有面对社会面不满的压力（RGDA 8; Eck 2022）。本文先考虑奥古斯都时期婚姻立法过程中，持不同立场的人士所使用的说服手段，以诗人贺拉斯和普罗佩提乌斯为代表。再来，本文看迪奥卡西乌斯笔下的奥古斯都面对骑士序列人士的两段演说（Dio Cass. 56.1-10），虽然较贺拉斯和普罗佩提乌斯而言，成文的时间距奥古斯都时期较远，但应有一定的参考价值。最后，本文也考虑一般学界不列入考虑的铭刻材料。公元前17年的《世纪竞赛元老院决议文》（Senatus Consultum de ludibus saecularibus）以及公元8年前后的《涂丽雅悼词》（Laudatio Turiae）等铭文石刻，或有助于我们理解不同层次的反应与反制。铭文勒石不只是一种昭示性质的行为，也是一种表演性质的行为。这两方在婚姻立法过程中立起的石刻，与婚姻、生育、单身、无子等议题相关，应该要与婚姻立法问题更为紧密地考虑。本文主张，这两方石刻可以理解为支持与反对婚姻立法人士要试图说明自己立场、并说服不同立场者的公开尝试，反应的是奥古斯都为道德监管的大环境下，罗马公民仍然留存的共识文化。

近年来，西方学界好于比较汉代中国与罗马时期地中海，研究方法主要是梳理并重组已知文字材料，寻找新的研究框架和比较视角,有效推进学界对于古代国家在如官僚系统、税收、管理等具"现代化"特征的研究工作。本文要比较的是这两个古代国家的治理行为，选择的研究对象是两者都有的、也都有强大需求的铁产业。近期中外的古代冶铁研究文献开始关注铁制半成品在铁业各环节之中的重要性。笔者还注意到，半成品生产与世代传承的私家铁业经营者之间存在关联性。笔者结合考古发掘成果与古代文献，讨论秦汉和罗马等古代国家管理者如何参与、适应既有的铁业传统与生态；如何介入、监管、甚至接管铁矿开采和冶炼业务；如何管理或动员铁业从业人力，确保古代国家治理者有可类比为"現代化"的动员能力，获取铁类的必要物资。