A bibliometric analysis based on the Science Citation Index Expanded was conducted to provide insights into the publication performance and research trend of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) and quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) from 1993 to 2012. The results show that the number of articles per year quadrupled from 1993 to 2006 and plateaued since 2007. Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling was the most prolific journal. The internal methodological innovations in acquiring molecular descriptors and modeling stimulated the articles' increase in the research fields of drug design and synthesis, and chemoinformatics; while the external regulatory demands on model validation and reliability fueled the increase in environmental sciences. "Prediction endpoints", "statistical algorithms", and "molecular descriptors" were identified as three research hotspots. The articles from developed countries were larger in number and more influential in citation, whereas those from developing countries were higher in output growth rates.

Trifluoromethane (CHF3, HFC-23) is one of the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) regulated under the Kyoto Protocol with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 (100-year). China's past, present, and future HFC-23 emissions are of considerable interest to researchers and policymakers involved in climate change. In this study, we compiled a comprehensive historical inventory (1980-2012) and a projection (2013-2050) of HFC-23 production, abatements, and emissions in China. Results show that HFC-23 production in China increased from 0.08 +/- 0.05 Gg/yr in 1980 to 15.4 +/- 2.1 Gg/yr (228 +/- 31 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2012, while actual HFC-23 emissions reached a peak of 10.5 +/- 1.8 Gg/yr (155 +/- 27 Tg/y CO2-eq) in 2006, and decreased to a minimum of 7.3 +/- 1.3 Gg/yr (108 +/- 19 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2008 and 2009. Under the examined business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the cumulative emissions of HFC-23 in China over the period 2013-2050 are projected to be 609 Gg (9015 Tg CO2-eq which approximates China's 2012 CO2 emissions). Currently, China's annual HFC-23 emissions are much higher than those from the developed countries, while it is estimated that by year 2027, China's historic contribution to the global atmospheric burden of HFC-23 will have surpassed that of the developed nations under the BAU scenario.

控制温室气体排放、减缓气候变化已成为国际社会关注的热点,中国作为温室气体排放大国,承受着巨大的国际压力。未来一段时间内,如果按照发达国家的技术路线,中国的氢氟碳化物(HFCs)的生产和消费将快速增长,其排放量将迅速增加。采用低全球增温潜势(GWP)技术及采取减排措施,HFCs领域具有很大减排潜力;将HFCs减排纳入中国减排温室气体的整体战略中,对推进国家水平的温室气体减排将作出重要贡献。当前,中国面临着重要机遇,比如针对含氟温室气体相对完备的履约机制可保证一定的减排技术转让和资金支持,履约行动将促进相关行业的节能减排与技术创新等;同时中国也面临着挑战,比如HFCs的巨大消费需求及其排放量的迅速增长,尤其是HFCs替代技术存在局限性等。

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is the most potent greenhouse gas regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, with a high global warming potential. In this study, SF6 emissions from China were inventoried for 1990-2010 and projected to 2020. Results reveal that the highest SF6 emission contribution originates from the electrical equipment sector (about 70%), followed by the magnesium production sector, the semiconductor manufacture sector and the SF6 production sector (each about 10%). Both agreements and discrepancies were found in comparisons of our estimates with previously published data. An accelerated growth rate was found for Chinese SF6 emissions during 1990-2010. Because the relative growth rate of SF6 emissions is estimated to be much higher than those of CO2, CH4, and N2O, SF6 will play an increasing role in greenhouse gas emissions in China. Global contributions from China increased rapidly from 0.9 +/- 0.3% in 1990 to 22.8 +/- 6.3% in 2008, making China one of the crucial contributors to the recent growth in global emissions. Under the examined Business-as-usual (BAU) Scenario, projected emissions will reach 4270 +/- 1020 t in 2020, but a reduction of about 90% of the projected BAU emissions would be obtained under the Alternative Scenario.

化学品在为人类社会带来广泛福利的同时,也日益被揭示出具有潜在的环境和健康风险.高关注物质(SVHCs)的风险管理是实现2020年全球化学品风险减低战略目标的关键领域,已成为国际化学品风险评估和风险管理的重点内容.全球化工产业转移和创新发展形势、中国经济和社会发展阶段以及现有监测研究均表明,中国将是未来全球SVHCs风险管理的重地.中国化学品风险管理体制长期偏重于危险化学品突发事故风险防控和应急处置,SVHCs风险管理尚缺乏健全的以现有化学品环境与健康风险防控为导向的法规和制度基础.化学品技术创新和风险管理能力的不足更让中国未来的SVHCs风险管理面临诸多障碍.尽管我国近年来在持久性有机污染物、重金属等SVHCs的基础研究方面取得了显著进步,但SVHCs风险管理所需的战略性、系统性的化学品风险评估研究一直缺乏,现有研究在前瞻性、组织性和实用性及方法学等多方面存在不足.

摘　要: 中国对POPs的关注始于八十年代初期,那时我们所依据的更多地是从国外得到的信息而非自己的研究结果。斯德哥尔摩公约的签署极大地促进了中国的POPs研究.这十年来.科研环境和研究能力大大提升.具体的研究成果也在逐步积累。国内POPs研究的硬件方面有了很大提高。但在研究经验和研究方法.包括一些技术手段上,跟国外还有很大差距。未来我们更需要的是基于风险管理为目标的研究,对于一些新增的、毒性较弱的POPs,也需要我们去做更深入的毒性研究、风险和风险管理研究。

以无《蒙特利尔议定书》的情景为基线情景,从消耗臭氧层物质排放、温室气体排放及冰箱耗电量角度分析中国冰箱行业履约淘汰CFCs产生的环境效益。结果表明,截至2008年底,中国冰箱行业淘汰CFCs已实现减排273.5 Mt CO2-eq和4.7×104 t ODP;2008年后还将减排619.8 Mt CO2-eq和1.0×105 t ODP;通过采用更加节能的制冷剂,截至2008年底累计节电2.8×1010 kWh,折合减排24.2 Mt CO2-eq,对中国节约资源和节能减排具有十分重要的现实意义。