There has been ever-increasing international interest in investigating the long-term emissions of chemicals in products (CiPs) throughout their entire life cycle in the anthroposphere. Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) is a contemporary example of special interest due to the recent listing of this hazardous flame retardant in the Stockholm Convention and the consequent need for parties to take appropriate measures to eliminate this compound. Here, we conducted a scenario-based dynamic substance flow analysis, coupled with interval linear programming, to forecast the future HBCDD emissions in China in order to assist with the implementation of the Stockholm Convention in this current world's predominant HBCDD manufacturing and consuming country. Our results indicate that, under a business-as-usual scenario, the cumulative HBCDD production will amount to 238,000聽tonnes before its phase-out, 79% of which will be consumed in domestic market, accumulate as stocks in flame-retarded polystyrene insulation boards, and ultimately end up in demolition waste. While the production is scheduled to end in ca. 2021, emissions of HBCDD would continue until after 2100. For the entire simulation period 2000鈥2100, 44% of total cumulative emissions will arise from the industrial manufacture of HBCDD-associated end-products, whereas 49% will come from the end-of-life disposals of HBCDD-containing waste. The most effective end-of-life disposal option for minimizing emissions we found was, a pre-demolition screening combined with complete incineration. Our study warns of the huge challenges that China would face in its eliminating HBCDD contamination in the following decades, and provides an effective methodology for a wider range of countries to recognize and tackle their long-term emission problems of hazardous CiPs.

As China’s largest CO 2 emission source, power sector has a large scale of power exchange, which results in the issue of interprovincial CO 2 emissions transfer embodied in power transmission. Based on interprovincial detailed power exchange data, a bottom-up method which takes into account the fuel mix of exported electricity is developed to calculate provincial CO 2 emissions embodied in power transmission. Provincial CO 2 emissions from power sector associated in consumption perspective in 2007, 2010 and 2012 are analyzed and compared with those in production based perspective. The calculation shows that total CO 2 emissions embodied in interprovincial power exchange is 532 Tg in 2012, accounting for 14% of total emissions from power sector. The embodied emissions have risen by 94% between 2007 and 2012. The general transfer pathway of embodied CO 2 emissions is from eastern China to western China with long-range power transmission. The disparities between consumption and production based CO 2 emissions are significant in some provinces. The production based CO 2 emissions from power sector of Inner Mongolia are 195 Tg higher than those of the consumption based, while the consumption based emissions of Beijing are 484% larger than those of the production based. This study also reveals an increasing trend of CO 2 emissions from both production and consumption principles for most provinces over the period 2007–2012.

Many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that are widely used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (now regulated under the Montreal Protocol) are very potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). China's past and future HFC emissions are of great interest because China has emerged as a major producer and consumer of HFCs. Here, we present for the first time a comprehensive inventory estimate of China's HFC emissions during 2005-2013. Results show a rapid increase in HFC production, consumption, and emissions in China during the period and that the emissions of HFC with a relatively high global warming potential (GWP) grew faster than those with a relatively low GWP. The proportions of China's historical HFC CO2-equivalent emissions to China's CO2 emissions or global HFC CO2-equivalent emissions increased rapidly during 2005-2013. Using the "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario, in which HFCs are used to replace a significant fraction of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) in China (to date, there are no regulations on HFC uses in China), emissions of HFCs are projected to be significant components of China's and global future GHG emissions. However, potentials do exist for minimizing China's HFC emissions (for example, if regulations on HFC uses are established in China). Our findings on China's historical and projected HFC emission trajectories could also apply to other developing countries, with important implications for mitigating global GHG emissions.

摘　要: 面对国际社会积极控制非CO_2温室气体的趋势和艰巨的温室气体减排任务,中国作为氢氟碳化物(HFCs)的产销大国,控制这一高增长、难回收的强效温室气体已势在必行。鉴于HFCs与臭氧消耗物质(Ozone Depleting Substance,ODS)的削减工作具有较强传承性,中国在构建管控HFCs系统时,应在沿用现有ODS管理体制与法规体系的基础上,借鉴国外的先进经验:将现有源头管理体系向下游延伸,构建全生命周期的封闭式管理机制;充分重视高精度温室气体排放量与大气浓度数据的反馈与指导作用,并将中国成熟的行业削减机制与逐个化学品(Chemical-bychemical)削减相结合,从而逐步以更具成本有效性的方式控制HFCs排放。

The uncertainties on whether dicofol can be identified as a persistent organic pollutant (POP) in terms of its long-range transport (LRT) potential and global distribution, are always a controversial topic during international regulation deliberations. The lack of monitoring data in remote background regions necessitates a model-based evaluation approach for assessing the global distribution of dicofol. However, few model simulations are available at present, as there is no inventory available for global historical usage of dicofol that has sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. To describe the current status of global emission, we first developed an inventory of global dicofol usage for the period of 2000-2012 at 1 degrees x 1 degrees latitude/longitude resolution. We then assessed the LRT potential of dicofol by calculating its Arctic Contamination Potential using the Globo-POP model. In addition, we simulated the global mass distribution and the fate of dicofol in the environment using the BETR-Global model at 15 degrees x 15 degrees latitude/longitude resolution. Our estimated inventory established that over the period of 13 years, a total of 28.2 kilo tonnes (kt) of dicofol was applied and released into the environment. East and Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean Coast, and Northern and Central America were identified as hotspots of usage and release. Dicofol exhibited a higher Arctic Contamination Potential than several confirmed Arctic contaminants, and a larger current volume of consumption than most existing POPs. The results of our BETR-Global simulation suggest that (i) dicofol can indeed be transported northward, most likely driven by both atmospheric and oceanic advections from source regions at midlatitudes, and (ii) dicofol will be enriched in remote background regions. Continuous use of dicofol in source regions will result in exposure both locally and in remote regions, and the examination of the potential for adverse effects is therefore of paramount importance. Proactive restrictions at the international level may be warranted.

Trifluoromethane (CHF3, HFC-23), with a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of 12400, is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol. HFC-23 emissions in East Asia, especially in China, are currently thought to represent the majority of global HFC-23 emissions. This study provides both a bottom-up emission inventory and the multiannual top-down estimate of HFC-23 emissions in East Asia during 2007-2012. The new bottom-up inventory yields improved simulated HFC-23 mixing ratios compared to previous bottom-up inventories. The top-down estimate uses inverse modeling to further improve the model-measurement agreement. Results show that China contributed 94-98% of all HFC-23 emissions in East Asia. Annual a posteriori emissions from China were around 6.3 Gg/yr during the period 2007-2010 after which they increased to 7.1 +/- 0.7 Gg/yr in 2011 and 8.8 +/- 0.8 Gg/yr in 2012. For the first time, this study also provides a top-down estimate of HFC-23/HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane, CHClF2) coproduction ratios in non-CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) HCFC-22 production plants as well as in all HCFC-22 production plants in China.

摘　要: 采用《国家温室气体清单指南》推荐方法,估算了1990—2014年中国各省份电力行业的温室气体排放水平。研究时期内,中国电力行业排放增长6.2倍,达到38.0(95%信度区间为31.3～46.0)亿tCO2当量(CO2-eq),而各省排放水平及其变化趋势呈现出显著的差异,排放重心向西部省份转移,内蒙古成为全国电力行业排放最大的省份。同时基于未来电源结构的发展方案,预测了2015—2050年不同电力需求情景下电力行业温室气体排放的变化趋势和达到排放峰值情况。电力需求高增速情景下2034年达到排放峰值59.5(49.3～71.8)亿t CO2-eq,而低增速情景可以提前至2031年达到排放峰值,且峰值水平下降7.7(6.3～9.3)亿tCO2-eq。

摘　要: 1974年,加利福尼亚大学欧文分校的舍伍德·罗兰和马里奥·莫利纳在《自然》杂志上发表文章,阐述了人类大量生产和使用的全氟氯烃(CFCs)因其大气环境中寿命长,可以经过几年到十几年的迁移到达同温层(平流层),并在短波紫外线UV—C的照射下发生光解,释放出游离氯自由基;后者发生链式反应促使臭氧(O3)转化为氧气(O2),从而造成平流层臭氧耗损。

摘　要: 利用北京大学定点较高时间频率浓度监测数据,甄选HCFC-22为估算HCFC-142b排放量适宜的参考物质,分析认为以往基于背景地区数据的研究中普遍采用的参考物质CO不适用于利用城市地区大气样品进行物种间浓度相关法研究。根据全国四城市(北京、杭州、兰州和广州)四季的HCFC-142b及其参考物质浓度监测数据,通过物种间浓度相关法计算2012年中国HCFC-142b排放量为16.24(13.90~18.58)kt,相当于1.06 ODP kt和37 Tg CO2-eq,占2012年中国HCFCs排放总量的9.78%(ODP),占全球HCFC-142b排放总量的30.57%。中国HCFC-142b的减排淘汰工作将在未来中国和全球成功履约中占据重要地位。

摘　要: HFC-134a在中国汽车空调行业广泛使用,并已成为中国目前排放量最大的有意生产和使用的HFCs之一。欧盟和美国已经颁布相关法律法规控制包括HFC-134a在内的含氟温室气体的消费和排放。如果选择低全球变暖潜势(GWP)替代技术,中国汽车空调行业将具有巨大的温室气体减排潜力;伴随着汽车空调系统需求呈现的多样化,现有替代技术如HFO-124yf、HFC-152a、CO2等各有优势和不足,需要综合考虑它们的经济成本、市场化可行性以及安全风险和环保标准;制定HFC-134a淘汰政策、积极推进替代技术的研究和应用,以积极响应国际社会加快淘汰HFC-134a的行动,也是落实2014年《中美气候变化联合声明》中提出的关于削减全球氢氟碳化物的行动。

控制温室气体排放、减缓气候变化已成为国际社会关注的热点,中国作为温室气体排放大国,承受着巨大的国际压力。未来一段时间内,如果按照发达国家的技术路线,中国的氢氟碳化物(HFCs)的生产和消费将快速增长,其排放量将迅速增加。采用低全球增温潜势(GWP)技术及采取减排措施,HFCs领域具有很大减排潜力;将HFCs减排纳入中国减排温室气体的整体战略中,对推进国家水平的温室气体减排将作出重要贡献。当前,中国面临着重要机遇,比如针对含氟温室气体相对完备的履约机制可保证一定的减排技术转让和资金支持,履约行动将促进相关行业的节能减排与技术创新等;同时中国也面临着挑战,比如HFCs的巨大消费需求及其排放量的迅速增长,尤其是HFCs替代技术存在局限性等。

Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) has been attracting increasing attention worldwide because of its increased environmental concentrations and high aquatic toxicity. Atmospheric deposition is the major source of aquatic TFA, but only a few studies have reported either air concentrations or deposition fluxes for TFA. This is the first study to report the atmospheric concentrations of TFA in China, where an annular denuder and filter pack collection system were deployed at a highly urbanized site in Beijing. In total, 144 air samples were collected over the course of 1 year (from May 2012 to April 2013) and analyzed directly using high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) or following derivatization by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The annual mean atmospheric concentration of TFA was 1580 +/- 558 pg/m(3), higher than the previously reported annual mean levels in Germany and Canada. For the first time, it was demonstrated that maximum concentrations of TFA were frequently observed in the afternoon, following a diurnal cycle and suggesting that a major source of airborne TFA is likely degradation of volatile precursors. Using a deposition model, the annual TFA deposition flux was estimated to be 619 +/- 264 mug m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, a box model estimated that the TFA deposition flux from the degradation of HFC-134a contributed only 14% (6-33%) to the total TFA deposition flux in Beijing. Source analysis is quite important for future TFA risk predictions; therefore, future research should focus on identifying additional sources.

Although many studies have been conducted in recent years on the emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) at the large regional (such as East Asia) and national scales, relatively few studies have been conducted for cities or metropolitan areas. In this study, 192 air samples were collected in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China in November 2010. The atmospheric mixing ratios of six halocarbons were analyzed, including trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CCl3F), dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12, CCl2F2), monochlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22, CHClF2), 1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane (HCFC-141b, CH3CCl2F), 1-dichloro-1,1-fluoroethane (HCFC-142b, CH3CClF2), and 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a, CH2FCF3), and their emissions were estimated based on an interspecies correlation method using HCFC-22 as the reference species. The results showed no significant change in the regional concentration and emission of CFC in the past 10years, suggesting that the continuous regional emission of CFC has had no significant effect on the CFC regional concentration in the PRD region. Concentrations and emissions of HCFCs and HFCs are significantly higher compared to previous research in the PRD region (P<0.05). The largest emission was for HCFC-22, most likely due to its substitution for CFC-12 in the industrial and commercial refrigeration subsector, and the rapid development of the room air-conditioner and extruded polystyrene subsectors. The PRD's ODP-weighted emissions of the target HCFCs provided 9% (7-12%) of the national emissions for the corresponding species. The PRD's GWP-weighted emissions of the target HCFCs and HFC-134a account for 10% (7-12%) and 8% (7-9%), respectively, of the national emissions for the corresponding species, and thus are important contributions to China's total emissions.