With the big popularity and success of Judea Pearl's original causality book, this review covers the main topics updated in the second edition in 2009 and illustrates an easy-to-follow causal inference strategy in a forecast scenario. It further discusses some potential benefits and challenges for causal inference with time series forecasting when modeling the counterfactuals, estimating the uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge to estimate causal effects in different forecasting scenarios.
Horizontally aligned carbon nanotube (HACNT) arrays hold significant potential for various applications in nanoelectronics and material science. However, their high-throughput characterization remains challenging due to the lack of methods with both high efficiency and high accuracy. Here, we present a novel technique, Calibrated Absolute Optical Contrast (CAOC), achieved through the implementation of differential principles to filter out stray signals and high-resolution calibration to endow optical contrast with physical significance. CAOC offers major advantages over previous characterization techniques, providing consistent and reliable measurements of HACNT array density with high throughput and non-destructive assessment. To validate its utility, we demonstrate wafer-scale uniformity assessment by rapid density mapping. This technique not only facilitates the practical evaluation of HACNT arrays but also provides insights into balancing high throughput and high resolution in nanomaterial characterization.
Textual information from online news is more timely than insurance claim data during catastrophes, and there is value in using this information to achieve earlier damage estimates. In this paper, we use text-based information to predict the duration and severity of catastrophes. We construct text vectors through Word2Vec and BERT models, using Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost as different learners, all of which show more satisfactory prediction results. This new approach is informative in providing timely warnings of the severity of a catastrophe, which can aid decision-making and support appropriate responses.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding holds immense potential for enhancing hydrocarbon recovery and facilitating geological carbon storage. Among CO2 flooding methods, miscible flooding demonstrates significantly higher production compared to immiscible flooding. However, in certain reservoirs, the high miscibility pressure presents a challenge for achieving miscibility under reservoir pressure conditions. Nonionic surfactants offer a solution by reducing the miscibility pressure in hydrocarbon-CO2 systems. In this study, eight nonionic surfactants were assessed, and two of the most effective surfactants were selected. These surfactants were combined to create a novel nonionic surfactant system aimed at lowering the miscibility pressure. The minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) of the hydrocarbon-CO2 system was measured using a slim-tube experiment, and a comparative analysis was conducted between the vanishing interfacial tension method (VIT) and the slim-tube method. Furthermore, the microscopic mechanism by which surfactants reduce the miscibility pressure was studied and analyzed. The findings indicate that the compound nonionic surfactant SF, with a total concentration of 1.0 wt% and a SMF to Span20 ratio of 1:1, reduces the miscibility pressure by 18.30%. The slim-tube data were processed to obtain a narrower range for MMP using criteria such as the crude oil recovery factor (ORF) and the break-over pressure (BOP). The maximum error between MMP measured by the VIT method and the slim-tube experiment is 5.86%, demonstrating the high accuracy of the VIT method in this study. The surfactant effectively reduces the miscibility pressure by decreasing the interfacial tension (IFT) between oil and gas, enhancing the CO2 extraction efficiency on intermediate hydrocarbons within the crude oil, and improving the solubility of CO2 in the crude oil. The findings of this study hold significant guidance for future investigations on the miscibility in the processes of geological CO2 utilization and storage.
The CO2 and Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate (SDS) assisted steam flooding technology was an effective approach addressed the persistent issues that have hindered the stable development of high-viscosity cold oil through steam injection. However, in the process of steam flow through porous media, the synergistic influence of the oil film adsorbed in near wellbore porous media, and the CO2-SDS on steam heat transfer has not been investigated. Steam heat transfer is the key factors affecting heavy oil recovery. The primary objective of this study was to research the effect of CO2-SDS on steam heat transfer and oil film stripping by designing experiments. The study results demonstrated that in the initial stage of displacement, the heat transfer resistance between the steam and the porous medium was increased by the oil film adsorbed in near wellbore area. In additional, the condensation mode of the steam was altered from bead condensing to film condensing by the composite thermal fluid flooding, preventing the steam heat dissipation near wellbore area and transferring more thermal to the long-distance area. At the later stage of displacement, the interfacial tension between oil-water and oil-gas was reduced by CO2-SDS, improving the fluidity of oil and providing the seepage channel for steam, and increasing the steam thermal sweep range. Compared to the sandpack experiment of steam flooding, the temperature at the output end of the sandpack model increased from 69.8 °C to 88.7 °C, indicating an expansion of the steam heat sweep range and successful long-distance heat transfer during composite thermal fluid flooding. In the process of composite thermal fluid flooding, the maximum displacement pressure difference increased from 2.28 MPa to 3.07 MPa, and the maximum oil recovery rate increased from 2.48 g/mL to 2.81 g/mL. The peak of the high production period was raised, resulting in a 40.97% to 51.86% increase in recovery rates.
ron/chromium hydroxide coprecipitation controls the fate and transport of toxic chromium (Cr) in many natural and engineered systems. Organic coatings on soil and engineered surfaces are ubiquitous; however, mechanistic controls of these organic coatings over Fe/Cr hydroxide coprecipitation are poorly understood. Here, Fe/Cr hydroxide coprecipitation was conducted on model organic coatings of humic acid (HA), sodium alginate (SA), and bovine serum albumin (BSA). The organics bonded with SiO2 through ligand exchange with carboxyl (–COOH), and the adsorbed amounts and pKa values of –COOH controlled surface charges of coatings. The adsorbed organic films also had different complexation capacities with Fe/Cr ions and Fe/Cr hydroxide particles, resulting in significant differences in both the amount (on HA > SA(–COOH) ≫ BSA(–NH2)) and composition (Cr/Fe molar ratio: on BSA(–NH2) ≫ HA > SA(–COOH)) of heterogeneous precipitates. Negatively charged –COOH attracted more Fe ions and oligomers of hydrolyzed Fe/Cr species and subsequently promoted heterogeneous precipitation of Fe/Cr hydroxide nanoparticles. Organic coatings containing –NH2 were positively charged at acidic pH because of the high pKa value of the functional group, limiting cation adsorption and formation of coprecipitates. Meanwhile, the higher local pH near the –NH2 coatings promoted the formation of Cr(OH)3. This study advances fundamental understanding of heterogeneous Fe/Cr hydroxide coprecipitation on organics, which is essential for successful Cr remediation and removal in both natural and engineered settings, as well as the synthesis of Cr-doped iron (oxy)hydroxides for material applications.