This paper revisits the commercial peace hypothesis using global event data from 1989 to 2019. We show that greater imports consistently worsen bilateral relations, with the effect strengthening after the 2008 financial crisis. The negative impact is most pronounced in democracies, high-income countries and those with elevated unemployment, where globalisation's distributive conflicts more easily shape foreign policy. Instrumental variable estimates confirm causality, and analyses using militarised interstate disputes reveal that trade-driven tensions extend beyond diplomacy to overt conflict. These findings challenge the optimistic view that economic interdependence fosters peace.

Rural in-migrants often introduce distinctive architectural aesthetics, driving gentrification processes in rural areas. While this new aesthetic influences local residents' architectural preferences, the factors related to these preferences remain unclear. This study investigates how interactions with rural in-migrants are associated with locals' architectural tastes and identifies other socio-cultural factors. We developed an innovative two-dimensional matrix framework for assessing architectural preferences in rural in-migration contexts, integrating rural in-migration theory with acculturation theory and validated through phototesting techniques. Through a theory-building case study, we focused on 3 villages in Dali, China, which share similar cultural backgrounds but exhibit different architectural changes in response to rural in-migration. We surveyed 335 locals and 218 migrants across these villages in 2021. The results show that increased social interactions between locals and migrants are significantly associated with strengthened local preferences for locality-based architectural styles over globalized ones, accompanied by a narrowing of the aesthetic distance between the two groups. These findings suggest that cultural interaction processes may reinforce rather than replace local aesthetic preferences. However, this effect varies among locals due to differences in community characteristics, urban experience, future residential intentions, age, education, and marital status. This study shows that local residents demonstrate agency in cultural adaptation rather than remain passive recipients, suggesting potential pathways for communities to resist marginalization in the gentrification process.

文章基于传统微观调查数据与电商平台大样本数据，通过估算不同年龄男女群体对总消费及各细分品类消费的净贡献，探讨了中国人口结构变迁对消费转型的影响，重点考察了老龄化背景下的消费行为变化及其宏观经济效应。结果表明，不同年龄个体对家庭消费的净贡献呈“驼峰”状，中青年群体贡献最高，未成年人和老年人相对较低。过去20年间女性（尤其是中青年女性）对总消费的贡献显著上升。有未成年子女的家庭总消费相对更低，这与育儿消耗父母时间与精力导致家庭劳动收入降低有关。老年人的医疗消费在同一时期内快速增长，但其对电商消费的贡献较为有限。模拟预测结果显示，人口老龄化对于消费增长的抑制效应逐渐加强，到2032年，消费年增长率会因人口老龄化而降低约0.6个百分点。此后，抑制效应先减弱又加剧，到2050年将达到约0.8个百分点。文章为理解人口结构变迁对中国消费需求的中长期影响提供了新的实证证据，也对相关政策制定具有参考价值。

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study examines the impact of art education on Chinese citizens’ trust in Americans. We find that participation in art tutorials correlates with increased trust towards Americans, with the level of trust rising with time spent in art education. Further analysis indicates that this effect is more pronounced in males and individuals whose parents already hold positive views of Americans. These results highlight the role of art education in fostering intercultural understanding. The study contributes to the literature on trust formation and the effects of art education, underscoring the significance of cultural engagement in promoting cross-cultural trust in global relations.

This study examines how overconfidence shapes individuals' preference for redistribution. We contend that overconfidence inflates individuals' income expectations, which reduces the perceived benefits of redistribution for these individuals and thereby weakens their preference for such policies. Using data from the 2014 China Family Panel Studies, we find that overconfident individuals are more confident in their future life and exhibit less concerns for economic inequality, healthcare, and social security issues—key proxies for preference for redistribution. These results are more pronounced among less wealthy individuals. In addition, our results remain unchanged after controlling for individuals' trust in government and risk preference. These findings highlight the role of biased belief in shaping individuals’ attitude toward redistribution, offering new insights for discussions on redistributive policies.

Using the census data from 2000-2015 and a pseudo-event study design, we estimate the motherhood penalty in China and explore its association with declining fertility. We find that one-third of working women leave their jobs in the year when they give birth, and the penalty persists for over eight years. The motherhood penalty increases significantly across almost all provinces during this period, and provinces with larger increases in the penalty experience greater declines in fertility rates. Using a mover-based design, we find that the rising motherhood penalty has caused a significant decline in the total fertility rate.

We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed for an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10 percent of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30 percent of the fertility decline.

We study the equilibrium effects of innovation subsidies that reduce firms' innovation costs in a monopolistic competition model with firm heterogeneity in innovation capabilities and an industry-level resource constraint. Subsidies change product market competition and resource price, and further affect firms' innovation. We show a counterintuitive result: though subsidies lower innovation costs, high-capability firms may reduce their innovation. This finding implies that the demand curve for innovation investments of certain firms in equilibrium can be locally upward-sloping. We show that at the industry level, both average innovation input and output demonstrate inverted-U shaped responses to increasing subsidies but with differing turning points. Notably, an increase in average innovation input may be accompanied by a decrease in average innovation output. These findings cast doubts on the interpretation of existing empirical evidences on firm and industry responses to innovation subsidies, most of which assume away treatment effect heterogeneity and equilibrium feedbacks.

In this paper, we present findings from four separate studies using different data sources and methods to examine Chinese attitudes toward the United States amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results consistently indicate a marked and significant decline in Chinese attitudes toward the US between late 2019 and the end of 2022. Using a quasi-experimental design and granular survey data that exploit daily variations in public opinion, we offer additional evidence that the decline in Chinese attitudes toward the United States followed a distinct pattern not true for Chinese attitudes toward other countries. Specifically, the rise in Chinese unfavorability toward the United States closely corresponded to the heightened Chinese attention to the pandemic’s progression in the United States. These results collectively suggest a causal effect of COVID-19, shedding light on how public health crises, international relations, and media jointly shape the increasing enmity between the two great powers.

为了降低银行的资本风险，巴塞尔协议III在原有资本充足率监管的基础上引入了杠杆率监管，中国银监会也相应地出台了商业银行杠杆率监管办法。现有文献主要是从商业银行行为的角度出发探讨杠杆率监管对银行风险和金融系统稳定性的影响。本文则从企业行为的角度出发，研究银行杠杆率监管对企业短债长用行为的影响。在一个动态博弈理论模型的框架下，本文考察了杠杆率监管如何改变企业的融资成本和债务期限，并发现杠杆率监管会降低企业的短期债务比例，减少短债长用的问题，进而降低提前清算风险并提升社会福利。进一步的分析还发现，杠杆率监管减少企业短债长用的政策效果在经济景气时期更为显著。这意味着杠杆率监管对于企业的影响具有逆周期特性。在一般均衡的框架下，本文的主要结果依然成立，且效应得到加强。

In the context of China's rapid population aging and internet expansion, this study examines the impact of information and communication technologies on the of older adults’ health. Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011–2018, we find that internet access improves older adults' self-reported health, mental health, and activities of daily living (ADL). Further investigations provide evidence for several underlying mechanisms, including improving social participation, promoting healthy behaviors, and encouraging intergenerational interactions. Heterogeneity analyses show that disadvantaged groups, such as those with any ADL difficulty and without social participation or a spouse, benefit more from internet access.

China has experienced an upsurge in child abandonment since the late 1970s in parallel with its one-child policy (OCP) and market reforms. Due to the scarcity of individual-level data, the literature focuses on informal adoption and child trafficking. This study first demonstrates the spatial-temporal trends of child abandonment across over 100,000 self-reported cases spanning 40 years in China collected from an internet platform. We then examine how the OCP and the long-established clan culture influence the incidence of child abandonment at the provincial level. We further compare whether the influences vary across genders. The results indicate that a tougher OCP penalty increases child abandonment, particularly the abandonment of girls. The influence of the OCP on girl abandonment is weaker in provinces with a strong clan culture, where sex ratios at birth are more unbalanced due to an increased incidence of gender-selective abortions.

本文基于2010-2012年和2014-2016年的中国城镇家户调查月度数据，用事件分析法系统地研究了我国城镇居民的劳动参与、收入消费以及不平等在退休年龄前后的季度动态变化。首先，在达到法定退休年龄后的前三年，约14%的男性和约22%的女性在领取养老金的同时会继续参与劳动力市场。这种“退而不休”的现象在养老金收入较低的群体中更为普遍。其次，家庭收入在退休年龄前后并未减少，在女性样本中还上升了7%。家户消费在退休年龄后上升了4%，消费扩张主要集中在医疗和食品等类别。最后，分位数回归结果显示，同一出生队列内部的收入不平等在达到退休年龄后有所缓解，消费不平等则进一步加剧。本文的研究发现为退休政策改革的机制设计提供了依据，也为预判改革的福利后果提供了参考。

当前国际环境动荡，外部冲击不断，中国在创新驱动经济高质量发展上面临更多挑战和更大不确定性。本文构建了一个引入创新能力异质性的企业决策模型，并内生化企业的研发投入和生产率。在此基础上，本文从供给侧和需求侧两个方面、长期和短期两个视角，考察了宏观冲击对企业研发及生产率的影响。本文发现，当供应链上游成本上升，短期来看，高创新能力的企业会增加研发投入和提高生产率，而低创新能力的企业会减少研发投入和降低生产率。供应链成本上升在企业层面上的长期效应与短期效应相似，但强度更高。随着企业间竞争加剧、行业壁垒上升，整个行业的平均生产率会有所提升。这意味着，长期来看，成本上升的压力可能会刺激企业创新、推动产业升级。另一方面，短期来看，总需求下降对所有企业的研发投入和生产率均有负面影响。长期来看，总需求下降在企业层面不会造成影响，也不改变行业结构，但会使行业规模缩小。本文为在如何在复杂多变的宏观环境中推动企业创新和实现经济高质量发展提供了微观分析和政策启示。

We construct a model of debt maturity structure and show how a firm trades off between the costs of market liquidity risk and rollover risk. On one hand, the issuance of long-term debt reduces market liquidity because it increases the supply in the secondary debt market, which increases the cost the firm bears for long-term debt (i.e., the cost of market liquidity risk). On the other hand, the use of short-term debt increases the likelihood of early liquidation, which raises the cost of short-term debt for the firm (i.e., the cost of rollover risk). We show that market liquidity risk and rollover risk the firm is exposed to are connected through endogenously determined debt maturity structure. An exogenous shock (e.g., shrinkage of market depth or an increase in risk-free interest rate) that directly increases one type of liquidity risk would induce the firm to alter debt maturity structure and partially offset the impact of the shock by raising its exposure to the other type of risk (i.e., spillover effects exist). We also show that the spillover from market liquidity risk (rollover risk) to rollover risk (market liquidity risk) is more (less) pronounced during economic recessions or in the case of competitive firms.

基于我国城镇住户月度面板数据和百度指数数据库，本文以地震为例，首次考察了风险感知如何影响家户消费行为和相关机制。结果表明，地震搜索指数每上升一个标准差，当地当月人均消费支出下降25元，且信息传播是导致搜索上升和消费下降的主要原因。灾难性事件通过改变居民主观风险造成消费扭曲，且影响甚至可能超过了直接经济损失。本文定量估算了对灾难性事件的风险感知造成的经济损失，能为政策制定者提供决策参考。

Objectives: We aimed to examine how COVID-19 incidence is associated with depressive symptoms in China, whether the association is transient, and whether the association differs across groups. Methods: We used a longitudinal sample from 2018 and 2020 waves of the China Family Panel Study. We constructed COVID-19 incidence rates as the number of new cases per 100,000 population in respondents’ resident provinces in the past 7, 14, and 28 days when a respondent was surveyed. We performed linear or logistic regressions to examine the associations, and performed stratified analyses to explore the heterogeneity of the associations. Results: Our sample included 13,655 adults. The 7-day incidence rate was positively associated with the CES-D score (coef.=2.551, 95% CI: 1.959-3.142), and likelihood of being more depressed (adjusted odds ratio=6.916, 95% CI: 4.715–10.144). The associations were larger among those with less education, pre-existing depression, or chronic conditions. We did not find any significant association between the 14- or 28-day local incidence rates and depressive symptoms. Conclusion: The impact of COVID-19 incidence on mental health in China’s general population was statistically significant and moderate in magnitude and transient. Disadvantaged groups experienced higher increases in depressive symptoms.

This study examines whether people smoked more under the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) closure policies which trapped them at home with their families. In such circumstances, the pleasure from smoking could be more tempting than usual, but at the same time smokers’ families are more likely to be victims of passive smoking. This study uses temporal and regional variations in policy strengths with data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project (OxCGRT) to examine the impact of COVID-19 closure policies on smoking behaviors. With longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2018 and 2020, we find diminished smoking behaviors among Chinese male adults when the government implemented strict public health policies for the COVID-19 pandemic. People with more conscientiousness personality traits or stronger pro-family attitudes tend to smoke less as policy stringency increases.

上世纪80年代以来，我国经历了长期的性别比失衡，表现为男性数量远远多于女性。面对性别比失衡，父母如何选择子女的受教育水平呢？本文发现，性别失衡使农村及社会经济地位低的家庭中的男孩受教育水平下降，不管是绝对意义上还是相对于女性；而城镇及高社会经济地位的家庭中的男孩受教育水平上升，城镇女性的受教育水平不受影响。这意味着性别比失衡扩大了城镇和农村男性人力资本的差距，进一步固化了社会分层。由于教育决策通常在结婚前数年完成的，我们进一步探索了家户是如何预测婚姻市场供求情况的。研究结果发现，父母在进行人力资本投资时，所依据的是做决策时婚姻市场适婚男女供求情况，而不是根据与子女出生年份相近的队列的性别比，尽管后者更接近子女结婚时的婚姻市场性别比。父母的预测倾向于低估子女结婚时适龄女性缺少的程度，这意味着当前的人力资本水平可能偏离家庭合意的水平。

冲突的区域聚集现象引发了学者对冲突跨国扩散的研究。但现有研究主要集中在内战或武装叛乱等暴力冲突上，对弱暴力甚至非暴力的社会冲突的跨国扩散研究较少，其中量化研究更是稀缺。本文基于综合危机预警系统事件数据库（ICEWS）中的160多个国家在1995-2012年间的冲突事件资料，采用异质扩散模型，检验了空间距离、共同语言和经济往来对社会冲突扩散的影响。研究发现，基于文化相似性认同的文化联结机制在冲突扩散过程中扮演重要作用，即社会冲突更容易在那些使用共同语言的国家之间扩散，且地理上的邻近将强化这种扩散；基于经济往来的关系联结机制仅仅在地理上邻近的国家之间产生作用，即同属一个区域贸易协定的邻国之间存在冲突扩散效应，同属一个区域贸易协定的非邻国之间不存在显著的冲突扩散效应；单纯地理上邻近的国家也没发现显著的冲突扩散效应。这一研究从理论和实证层面深化了对冲突扩散机制的认识，为评估政治风险、制定预防和应对措施提供了参考。