The vehicular emission trend in China was tracked for the recent period 2006–2009 based on a database of dynamic emission factors of CO, nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), NOx, PM10, CO2, CH4, and N2O for all categories of on-road motor vehicles in China, which was developed at the provincial level using the COPERT 4 model, to account for the effects of rapid advances in engine technologies, implementation of improved emission standards, emission deterioration due to mileage, and fuel quality improvement. Results show that growth rates of CO and NMVOC emissions slowed down, but NOx and PM10emissions continued rising rapidly for the period 2006–2009. Moreover, CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions in 2009 almost doubled compared to those in 2005. Characteristics of recent spatial distribution of emissions and emission contributions by vehicle category revealed that priority of vehicular emission control should be put on the eastern and southeastern coastal provinces and northern regions, and passenger cars and motorcycles require stricter control for the reduction of CO and NMVOC emissions, while effective reduction of NOx and PM10 emissions can be achieved by better control of heavy-duty vehicles, buses and coaches, and passenger cars. Explicit provincial-level Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, which quantified for the first time the Chinese vehicular emission uncertainties associated with both COPERT-derived and domestically measured emission factors by vehicle technology, showed that CO, NMVOC, and NOx emissions for the period 2006–2009 were calculated with the least uncertainty, followed by PM10 and CO2, despite relatively larger uncertainties in N2O and CH4 emissions. The quantified low uncertainties of emissions revealed a necessity of applying vehicle technology- and vehicle age-specific dynamic emission factors for vehicular emission estimation, and these improved methodologies are applicable for routine update and forecast of China's on-road motor vehicle emissions.
