This paper revisits the commercial peace hypothesis using global event data from 1989 to 2019. We show that greater imports consistently worsen bilateral relations, with the effect strengthening after the 2008 financial crisis. The negative impact is most pronounced in democracies, high-income countries and those with elevated unemployment, where globalisation's distributive conflicts more easily shape foreign policy. Instrumental variable estimates confirm causality, and analyses using militarised interstate disputes reveal that trade-driven tensions extend beyond diplomacy to overt conflict. These findings challenge the optimistic view that economic interdependence fosters peace.
It is possible to make a list of able governors and their qualities from sources such as Suetonius and Tacitus. The ability to win battles and suppress revolts aside, there seems to be a preference for a combination of qualities such as "equal justice and courage" and "great care for strictness and justice even in the smallest matters." For Agricola there was the assimilative project in Britannia, teaching chieftain's children the liberal arts and drawing Britons towards humanitas that included porticoes, baths and banquets, so that they forget servitude. These are candidates for "good" governors, but from a Roman perspective. Beyond the transmitted texts, what are other indicators of a good governor?
Using a peculiar document dealing with a bakers' strike at Ephesus in the second century CE to read against a number of gubernatorial pronouncements selected from an assembled dossier, in this article, I show that governors who restrained their power to coerce and threatened punishment only in reserve for the benefit of their subjects can be regarded as a form of governance that strived to meet a standard higher than the Augustan principles of "no-harm" set down in the fifth Cyrene edict, so much so that they may meet the "good" governor test. I will first examine the notion of good governance from the Republic to the Principate, and provide a close reading of a pronouncement so-called the bakers' strike edict that is suitable to examine notions of practical versus good governance in the second century CE. Further comparanda are imported to discuss why some governors may have been willing to take risks to show their care for the communities they govern when local peace, imperial expectations, and personal reputation collided. A pattern that emerges among pronouncements dealing with crises is a "monitive" idiom: governors hang punishment in suspense, invoke the notion of civic benefit through pronouncements, verbal, written then inscribed, ready to take action, should persuasion through monitive and exhortative speech fail. Such a gradational, escalatory approach seems to pass several measures described in the first section can be considered "good governance."
Order type plays an important role in algorithmic trading and is a key factor of price impact. In this paper, we propose a new framework for studying the discrete price change process, which focuses on the impacts of aggressive orders (market orders and aggressive limit orders) and cancellations. The price change process is driven by states and events of best quotes, and we define the event-based price change as the "natural price change" (NPC). Under the framework, we propose a heteroscedastic linear econometric model for the NPC to explore the impact of different types of orders on the price dynamics. To verify the usability of our model and explore the driving factors of price dynamics, we conduct a thorough empirical analysis for 786 large-tick stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Empirical results statistically demonstrate that aggressive orders can introduce stronger impact on the NPC than cancellations. Meanwhile, splitting a big order into several small orders can lead to a larger NPC. Our framework can also be applied for the prediction of price change.
本文探究了财经媒体新闻文本情绪与股票市场之间的关联。我们综合Loughran and MacDonald（2011）词典、word2vec算法和人工筛选等方法构建了中文金融文本情感词典，然后用该词典提取了中国股票市场的媒体文本情绪。我们发现媒体文本情绪可以很好地衡量我国股票市场投资者情绪的变化，该指标在样本内和样本外都对股票回报具有显著的预测能力。这一指标的预测能力强于常用的宏观经济指标或历史均值预测。此外，文本情绪指标对一些宏观经济指标也有显著的预测能力。