Poor knowledge, scarce resources, and lack of or misaligned incentives have been widely documented as drivers of the irrational use of medicine (IUM), which significantly challenges the efficiency of health systems across the globe. However, there is limited understanding of the influence of each factor on IUM. We used detailed data on provider treatment of presumptive asthma cases in rural China to assess the contributions of provider knowledge, resource constraints, and provider behavior on IUM. This study enrolled 370 village providers from southwest China. All providers responded to a clinical vignette to test their knowledge of how to treat presumptive asthma. Resource constraints (“capacity”) were defined as the availability of the prescribed medicines in vignette. To measure provider behavior (“performance”), a subset of providers (104 of 370) were randomly selected to receive unannounced visits by standardized patients (SPs) who performed of presumptive asthma symptoms described in the vignette. We found that, 54% (201/370) of providers provided the vignette-based patients with prescriptions. Moreover, 67% (70/104) provided prescriptions for the SPs. For the vignette, only 10% of the providers prescribed the correct medicines; 38% prescribed only unnecessary medicines (and did not provide correct medicine); 65% prescribed antibiotics (although antibiotics were not required); and 55% prescribed polypharmacy prescriptions (that is, they prescribed five or more different types of drugs). For the SP visits, the numbers were 12%, 51%, 63%, and 0%, respectively. The lower number of medicines in the SP visits was due, in part, to the injections’ not being allowed based on ethical considerations (in response to the vignette, however, 65% of providers prescribed injections). The difference between provider knowledge and capacity is insignificant, while a significant large gap exists between provider performance and knowledge/capacity (for 11 of 17 indicators). Our analysis indicated that capacity constraints play a minor role in driving IUM compared to provider performance in the treatment of asthma cases in rural China. If similar findings hold for other disease cases, this suggests that policies to reduce the IUM in rural China have largely been unsuccessful, and alternatives for improving aligning provider incentives with appropriate drug use should be explored.
Disseminating data is a core mission of international organizations (IOs). IO lending and conditionality may incentivize governments to collect and disclose aggregate economic data. We explore the association between loans from the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs) and an index of economic transparency derived from the data-reporting practices of governments to the World Bank. Using a matching method for causal inference complemented by a multilevel regression analysis, we find consistent evidence of a positive and statistically significant effect of BWI loans on the improvement of the level of economic transparency in developing countries.
Despite growing attention to job satisfaction as a social determinant of alcohol-related behaviors, few studies focus on its diverse impacts on alcohol consumption. Using data from the China Family Panel Study in 2018, this study uses logistic regression analysis to examine how job satisfaction affects alcohol consumption in China, finding that people who were satisfied with their jobs were more likely to be regularly drinking. Employed people who were satisfied with their working environment and working hours were more likely to regularly drink, but those who were satisfied with their wages and working security were less likely to be regularly drinking. Findings suggest that the link between job satisfaction and alcohol consumption is dynamic. Employment policies, working wellbeing improvement programs, and alcohol policy improvement should, therefore, be designed on the basis of a comprehensive account of entire job-related attitudes.
International trade separates consumption of goods from related environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change (together referred to as “land-use emissions”). Through use of new emissions estimates and a multiregional input-output model, we evaluated land-use emissions embodied in global trade from 2004 to 2017. Annually, 27% of land-use emissions and 22% of agricultural land are related to agricultural products ultimately consumed in a different region from where they were produced. Roughly three-quarters of embodied emissions are from land-use change, with the largest transfers from lower-income countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina to more industrialized regions such as Europe, the United States, and China. Mitigation of global land-use emissions and sustainable development may thus depend on improving the transparency of supply chains.
This paper presents a CFD modeling of deNOx process in a coal-fired power plant selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system, with focus on the transient hydrodynamics of multi-species flow and the influence of vortex on the deNOx process. For this purpose, a comprehensive CFD model is established, parameter study and model validation are performed, and the hydrodynamics, vortex evolution and species concentration distribution are numerically investigated. Simulation results indicate that many vortices with various scale/intensity/shape exist in the SCR system, causing apparent pressure pulsations and velocity fluctuations. High-intensity eddies are mainly distributed in the deflector group Ι, the NH3 nozzles, the static mixer, and the right part of the rectifying grille. The number of eddies decreases significantly with reducing the unit loads. Affected by vortex evolution, the NH3 concentration fluctuates in the SCR system, especially in the vertical flue. The deNOx process completes within 6 s, and the ammonia slip is less than 1.0 ppm, which well meets the requirement of industrial standards. In addition, the static mixer severely destroys the velocity uniformity but favors the mixing of NH3 and NOx. The rectifying grille improves the uniformity of flow field and species concentration field significantly.
Phosphate addition is commonly applied as an effective method to remediate lead contaminated sites via formation of low solubility lead phosphate solids. However, subsequent transport of the lead phosphate particles may impact the effectiveness of this remediation strategy. Hence, this study investigates the mechanisms involved in the aggregation of lead phosphate particles and their deposition in sand columns as a function of typical water chemistry parameters. Clean bed filtration theory was evaluated to predict the particle deposition behavior, using Derjaguin–Landau–Verwey–Overbeek (DLVO) theory to estimate particle-substrate interactions. The observed particle deposition was not predictable from the primary energy barrier in clean bed filtration models, even in simple monovalent background electrolyte (NaNO3), because weak deposition in a secondary energy minimum prevailed even at low ionic strength, and ripening occurred at ionic strengths of 12.5 mM or higher. For aged (aggregated) suspensions, straining also occurred at 12.5 mM or higher. Aggregation and deposition were further enhanced at low total P/Pb ratios (i.e., P/Pb = 1) and in the presence of divalent cations, such as Ca2+ (≥ 0.2 mM), which resulted in less negative particle surface potentials and weaker electrostatic repulsion forces. However, the presence of 5 mg C/L of humic acid induced strong steric or electrosteric repulsion, which hindered particle aggregation and deposition even in the presence of Ca2+. This study demonstrates the importance of myriad mechanisms in lead phosphate deposition and provides useful information for controlling water chemistry in phosphate applications for lead remediation.
This paper identifies and estimates the causal effect of an intervention on repeatedly measured units that co-exist and interact with one another in a social network, when the dichotomous intervention is not randomly assigned and the network evolution may be driven by choices of social agents. We adopt the potential outcome framework and develop identification assumptions to define and identify three estimands, namely, the direct treatment effect, the spillover effect, and the general treatment effect. Our framework incorporates social network ties as part of the joint treatment and treats longitudinal networks as variables rather than constants. It also considers complicated causal paths generated by interdependent outcomes. We propose a model-based estimation strategy and use a factor analysis to correct for biases caused by latent homophily. By imputing potential outcomes based on simultaneous equations, we disentangle spillover effects from direct treatment effects and explicitly estimate first-order and higher-order causal effects. The proposed method is easy to implement and flexible to accommodate a wide variety of networks.
Interfacial tensions (IFTs) between crude oil and water or brine systems are critically important in many processes. Exhibited dynamic behavior often remains poorly studied and requires in-depth analysis. In this study, 27 series of dynamic IFT measurements were conducted for three different crude oils in combination with three different aqueous phases (pure water and two synthetic reservoir brines) at temperatures of 298.15, 343.15 and 393.15 K and pressures up to 30 MPa. This study provides a large database of crude oil-water/brine IFTs encompassing reservoir conditions of temperature and pressure. Specific effects of temperature, pressure, and fluid composition on the crude oil-water and oil-brine IFTs were evaluated. The dynamic evolution of the IFT between the crude oils and aqueous phases was categorized according to typical relationships observed. The most commonly observed evolution was an initial rapid decline in IFT, over a period of 100 to 1,000 s, followed by levelling off at a nearly-constant long-term value. However, in certain cases, the initial rapid decline was followed by a broad minimum and a subsequent slow increase towards a nearly-steady long-time value. In either case, the initial decline is described by a simple model based on diffusion of surface-active components in the oil and their subsequent adsorption at the interface. The longer-term behavior may be further attributed to a combination of saturation, rearrangement and dissolution of the surface-active components.
Today, climate change is affecting virtually all terrestrial and nearshore settings. This commentary discusses the challenges of measuring climate-driven physical landscape responses to modern global warming: short and incomplete data records, land use and seismicity masking climatic effects, biases in data availability and resolution, and signal attenuation in sedimentary systems. We identify opportunities to learn from historical and paleo data, select especially sensitive study sites, and report null results to better characterize the extent and nuances of climate-change effects. We then discuss efforts to improve attribution practices, which will lead to better predictive capabilities. We encourage the Earth-science community to prioritize scientific research on climate-driven physical landscape changes so that societies will be better prepared to manage the effects on health and safety, infrastructure, water–food–energy security, economics, and ecosystems that follow from climate-driven physical landscape change.
Abstract Understanding the mechanisms controlling downstream water-level variations after the operation of the Three Gorges Dam is important for riverine flood and drought management. However, our quantitative understanding of the multiple controls of river morphology, vegetation, and floodplain resistance on water levels in the Middle Yangtze River (MYR) remains limited. Here, we analyze changes in river channels and floodplain resistance in the MYR using 450 cross-sectional profiles as well as data on discharge, water levels, sediment, and satellite images from 2003 to 2015. Results show an overall decline in low-flow water-levels (at a given small discharge) due to severe incisions of low-flow channels caused by a sharp reduction of ?90% in sediment loads from 1950?2002 to 2003?2020. In contrast, high-flow water-levels (at a given large discharge) display minor changes. Our analysis shows that the notably increased floodplain resistance due to vegetation growth is likely the dominant factor elevating flood water-levels, followed by riverbed coarsening and greater fluctuations in the river longitudinal profiles. Our findings further the understanding of downstream geomorphic response to dam operation and their impacts on water levels and have important implications for riverine flood management in dammed river systems.
Dams alter downstream river flow and sediment regimes, causing significant changes in river morphologies. The middle Yangtze River downstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has experienced rapid erosion in recent years, and the associated morphodynamic changes have negatively impacted the bank stability, navigation waterways and ecological functioning. Earlier studies have analyzed recent channel adjustments in the Yangtze River; however, our understanding of changes in the bar morphodynamics remains incomplete. In this study, we collected and analyzed flow and sediment data (1991∼2016) and river bathymetry data (1975∼2017) and investigated the mechanisms of bar adjustments along the Jingjiang Reach in the post-TGD period. The results indicate that most steady bars with a higher elevation and better vegetation coverage have experienced lateral erosion, while their elevations have remained stable overall. The unvegetated migrating bars with a lower elevation have experienced severe surficial erosion and area shrinkage. A new assessment method of the dominant discharge range on downstream bars is provided after dam closure. The new dominant discharge range that determines bar adjustments corresponds to the flow stages between the submersion of migrating bars (∼12,500 m3/s) and the overtopping of vegetated steady bars (∼27,500 m3/s) in the Jingjiang Reach. A quantitative relationship exists between bar erosion in response to changed dominant discharge regimes and sediment decline. The significant bar erosion after the operation of the TGD can be attributed to the increased flow duration and the sharp decline in the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the dominant discharge range, and changes in SSCs play a primary role. The bar area will decrease by ∼0.003 km2 when the annual cumulative duration of the dominant discharge increases by one day and by ∼0.234 km2 when the annual average SSC of the dominant discharge decreases by 0.01 kg/m3. Furthermore, vegetation encroachment and colonization play a positive role in stabilizing bar morphologies and limiting surficial erosion, whereas vegetation cannot prevent the lateral erosion of steady bars. These findings suggest that multiple controls, including flow, sediment and vegetation, shape the evolution of fluvial bars and have important implications for river management and ecological evaluation in response to the operation of large dams.
This study examines whether people smoked more under the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) closure policies which trapped them at home with their families. In such circumstances, the pleasure from smoking could be more tempting than usual, but at the same time smokers’ families are more likely to be victims of passive smoking. This study uses temporal and regional variations in policy strengths with data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project (OxCGRT) to examine the impact of COVID-19 closure policies on smoking behaviors. With longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2018 and 2020, we find diminished smoking behaviors among Chinese male adults when the government implemented strict public health policies for the COVID-19 pandemic. People with more conscientiousness personality traits or stronger pro-family attitudes tend to smoke less as policy stringency increases.
The literature on microcredit programs has largely focused on positive socioeconomic outcomes and low accessibility issues in farming areas and has provided less insight into the effects of easily acquired microcredit in pastoral areas. Using a case study approach, and econometric models, this paper addresses this gap by examining why and how easily acquired microcredit loans in Inner Mongolian pastoral areas increase the risk to the financial security of households or livelihood risk. Results show that existing microcredit programs increase livelihood risk because loan and repayment requirements do not align with the husbandry production cycle of contemporary Inner Mongolian pastoralists. This misalignment forces pastoralists to borrow from usurers to repay bank loans. Furthermore, households that need to borrow from usurers typically own smaller numbers of livestock and are less likely to be able to repay the usurers by selling animals. Instead, they tend to increase their bank loans in the coming year to repay the previous year’s debt, trapping them in a vicious and ultimately impoverishing circle of annual loans they cannot fully pay back, and feeding increasing debt. We suggest that microcredit programs in semiarid areas should be in sync with the local production cycle and recognize environmental constraints that cause high variation in production seasonally and year to year. Our results supplement previous findings on microcredit applications and are particularly pertinent for other semiarid areas of the world.
