摘要:

Global hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) cumulative emissions will bemore than 20 Gt CO2-equiv during 2020−2060 and have a non-negligible impacton global warming even in full compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA).Fluorochemical manufacturers (including multinationals) in China haveaccounted for about 70% of global HFC production since 2015, of which about60% is emitted outside China. This study built an integrated model (i.e., DECAF)to estimate both territorial and exported emissions of China under three scenariosand assess the corresponding climate effects as well as abatement costs. Achievingnear-zero territorial emissions by 2060 could avoid 23 ± 4 Gt CO2-equiv ofcumulative territorial emissions (compared to the 2019 Baseline scenario) during2020−2060 at an average abatement cost of 9 ± 6 USD/t CO2-equiv. Under thenear-zero emission (including territorial and abroad) pathway, radiative forcingfrom HFCs will peak in 2037 (60 ± 6 mW/m2) with a 33% peak reduction and 8years in advance compared to the path regulated by the KA, and the radiative forcing by 2060 will be lower than that in 2019. Accelerated phase-out of HFC production in China could provide a possibility for rapid global HFC abatement and achieve greater climate benefits.

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