【主讲人】林发勤 教授
【主持人】高明 长聘副教授
【报告题目】Trade competition and the "Great Migration": The impact of soybean import shock in China

【报告摘要】As the largest soybean importing country, this study empirically investigates and quantitatively analyzes the migration effects of soybean import shocks in China, with a focus on the three northeastern provinces—the country's primary soybean-producing region. By constructing the exogenous prefecture-level soybean import shock and using individual-level migration data from the Population Census, we find that soybean import shocks significantly drive rural out-migration, with a one standard deviation increase in soybean import shock raising the probability of out-migration by 4.25%. These shocks disrupt local soybean production, compelling individuals, particularly low-educated and young farmers, to seek employment opportunities in more developed regions, predominantly as migrant workers. Quantitative analysis reveals that soybean import shocks have resulted in a 0.18% increase in the net population outflow rate in Northeast China, alongside a 1.24% decline in real income. Furthermore, most cities in the region experienced reduced real income and elevated net outflow rates following the shock. Cities with higher dependency on the soybean industry, such as Heihe and Qiqihar in Heilongjiang, face more severe welfare losses and greater risks of population outflows.

【主讲人介绍】中国农业大学经济管理学院领军教授、博士生导师、经济贸易系主任、农产品国际贸易研究中心主任，社科重大项目和自科国际合作重点项目首席专家，国家级人才称号获得者。先后取得对外经济贸易大学、澳大利亚阿德莱德大学经济学博士学位，曾任中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院国际贸易系主任。研究成果发表于JIE、JDE、EER、JEBO、JCE和《经济研究》《管理世界》等国内外一流刊物，担任China Economic Review副主编、《中国农业大学学报（人文社科版）》编委，作为主要成员参于首批中国经济学教材《中国开放型经济学》编写，出版畅销书《你应该知道的国际贸易》，研究报告多次获得国家领导人批示。