Global warming-induced melting and thawing of the cryosphere are severely altering the volume and timing of water supplied from High Mountain Asia, adversely affecting downstream food and energy systems that are relied on by billions of people. The construction of more reservoirs designed to regulate streamflow and produce hydropower is a critical part of strategies for adapting to these changes. However, these projects are vulnerable to a complex set of interacting processes that are destabilizing landscapes throughout the region. Ranging in severity and the pace of change, these processes include glacial retreat and detachments, permafrost thaw and associated landslides, rock–ice avalanches, debris flows and outburst floods from glacial lakes and landslide-dammed lakes. The result is large amounts of sediment being mobilized that can fill up reservoirs, cause dam failure and degrade power turbines. Here we recommend forward-looking design and maintenance measures and sustainable sediment management solutions that can help transition towards climate change-resilient dams and reservoirs in High Mountain Asia, in large part based on improved monitoring and prediction of compound and cascading hazards.

Rapid atmospheric warming since the mid-twentieth century has increased temperature-dependent erosion and sediment-transport processes in cold environments, affecting food, energy and water security. In this Review, we summarize landscape changes in cold environments and provide a global inventory of increases in erosion and sediment yield driven by cryosphere degradation. Anthropogenic climate change, deglaciation, and thermokarst disturbances are causing increased sediment mobilization and transport processes in glacierized and periglacierized basins. With continuous cryosphere degradation, sediment transport will continue to increase until reaching a maximum (peak sediment). Thereafter, transport is likely to shift from a temperature-dependent regime toward a rainfall-dependent regime roughly between 2100–2200. The timing of the regime shift would be regulated by changes in meltwater, erosive rainfall and landscape erodibility, and complicated by geomorphic feedbacks and connectivity. Further progress in integrating multisource sediment observations, developing physics-based sediment-transport models, and enhancing interdisciplinary and international scientific collaboration is needed to predict sediment dynamics in a warming world.

Today, climate change is affecting virtually all terrestrial and nearshore settings. This commentary discusses the challenges of measuring climate-driven physical landscape responses to modern global warming: short and incomplete data records, land use and seismicity masking climatic effects, biases in data availability and resolution, and signal attenuation in sedimentary systems. We identify opportunities to learn from historical and paleo data, select especially sensitive study sites, and report null results to better characterize the extent and nuances of climate-change effects. We then discuss efforts to improve attribution practices, which will lead to better predictive capabilities. We encourage the Earth-science community to prioritize scientific research on climate-driven physical landscape changes so that societies will be better prepared to manage the effects on health and safety, infrastructure, water–food–energy security, economics, and ecosystems that follow from climate-driven physical landscape change.

Abstract Understanding the mechanisms controlling downstream water-level variations after the operation of the Three Gorges Dam is important for riverine flood and drought management. However, our quantitative understanding of the multiple controls of river morphology, vegetation, and floodplain resistance on water levels in the Middle Yangtze River (MYR) remains limited. Here, we analyze changes in river channels and floodplain resistance in the MYR using 450 cross-sectional profiles as well as data on discharge, water levels, sediment, and satellite images from 2003 to 2015. Results show an overall decline in low-flow water-levels (at a given small discharge) due to severe incisions of low-flow channels caused by a sharp reduction of ?90% in sediment loads from 1950?2002 to 2003?2020. In contrast, high-flow water-levels (at a given large discharge) display minor changes. Our analysis shows that the notably increased floodplain resistance due to vegetation growth is likely the dominant factor elevating flood water-levels, followed by riverbed coarsening and greater fluctuations in the river longitudinal profiles. Our findings further the understanding of downstream geomorphic response to dam operation and their impacts on water levels and have important implications for riverine flood management in dammed river systems.

Abstract Climate change will likely increase the total streamflow in most headwaters on the Tibetan Plateau in the next decades, yet the response of runoff components to climate change and permafrost thaw remain largely uncertain. Here, we investigate the changes in runoff components under a changing climate, based on a high-resolution cryosphere-hydrology model (Spatial Processes in Hydrology model, SPHY) and multi-decadal streamflow observations at the upstream (Jimai) and downstream stations (Maqu and Tangnaihai) in the source-region of the Yellow River (SYR). We find that rainfall flow dominates the runoff regime in SYR (contributions of 48%?56%), followed by snowmelt flow (contributions of 26%/23% at Maqu/Tangnaihai). Baseflow is more important at Jimai (32%) than at the the downstream stations (21%?23%). Glacier meltwater from the Anyê Maqên and Bayankala Mountains contributes negligibly to the downstream total runoff. With increasing temperature and precipitation, the increase in total runoff is smaller in the warm and wet downstream stations than in the cold and dry upstream station. This is because of a higher increase in evapotranspiration and a larger reduction in snowmelt flow in the downstream region in response to a warming climate. With temperature increase, there is less increase in rainfall flow in the downstream region due to increased water loss through evapotranspiration. Meanwhile, the decline in snowmelt flow is larger further downstream, which can negatively impact the spring irrigation for the whole Yellow River basin that supports the livelihoods of 140 million people. Importantly, we find that baseflow plays an increasingly important role in the permafrost-dominated upstream region with atmospheric warming and permafrost thaw, accompanied by decreased surface flow. These findings improve our current understanding of how different hydrological processes respond to climate change and provide insights for optimizing hydropower and irrigation systems in the entire Yellow River basin under a rapidly changing climate.

Dams alter downstream river flow and sediment regimes, causing significant changes in river morphologies. The middle Yangtze River downstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has experienced rapid erosion in recent years, and the associated morphodynamic changes have negatively impacted the bank stability, navigation waterways and ecological functioning. Earlier studies have analyzed recent channel adjustments in the Yangtze River; however, our understanding of changes in the bar morphodynamics remains incomplete. In this study, we collected and analyzed flow and sediment data (1991∼2016) and river bathymetry data (1975∼2017) and investigated the mechanisms of bar adjustments along the Jingjiang Reach in the post-TGD period. The results indicate that most steady bars with a higher elevation and better vegetation coverage have experienced lateral erosion, while their elevations have remained stable overall. The unvegetated migrating bars with a lower elevation have experienced severe surficial erosion and area shrinkage. A new assessment method of the dominant discharge range on downstream bars is provided after dam closure. The new dominant discharge range that determines bar adjustments corresponds to the flow stages between the submersion of migrating bars (∼12,500 m3/s) and the overtopping of vegetated steady bars (∼27,500 m3/s) in the Jingjiang Reach. A quantitative relationship exists between bar erosion in response to changed dominant discharge regimes and sediment decline. The significant bar erosion after the operation of the TGD can be attributed to the increased flow duration and the sharp decline in the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the dominant discharge range, and changes in SSCs play a primary role. The bar area will decrease by ∼0.003 km2 when the annual cumulative duration of the dominant discharge increases by one day and by ∼0.234 km2 when the annual average SSC of the dominant discharge decreases by 0.01 kg/m3. Furthermore, vegetation encroachment and colonization play a positive role in stabilizing bar morphologies and limiting surficial erosion, whereas vegetation cannot prevent the lateral erosion of steady bars. These findings suggest that multiple controls, including flow, sediment and vegetation, shape the evolution of fluvial bars and have important implications for river management and ecological evaluation in response to the operation of large dams.