We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed for an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10 percent of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30 percent of the fertility decline.
Order type plays an important role in algorithmic trading and is a key factor of price impact. In this paper, we propose a new framework for studying the discrete price change process, which focuses on the impacts of aggressive orders (market orders and aggressive limit orders) and cancellations. The price change process is driven by states and events of best quotes, and we define the event-based price change as the "natural price change" (NPC). Under the framework, we propose a heteroscedastic linear econometric model for the NPC to explore the impact of different types of orders on the price dynamics. To verify the usability of our model and explore the driving factors of price dynamics, we conduct a thorough empirical analysis for 786 large-tick stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Empirical results statistically demonstrate that aggressive orders can introduce stronger impact on the NPC than cancellations. Meanwhile, splitting a big order into several small orders can lead to a larger NPC. Our framework can also be applied for the prediction of price change.
We study the equilibrium effects of innovation subsidies that reduce firms' innovation costs in a monopolistic competition model with firm heterogeneity in innovation capabilities and an industry-level resource constraint. Subsidies change product market competition and resource price, and further affect firms' innovation. We show a counterintuitive result: though subsidies lower innovation costs, high-capability firms may reduce their innovation. This finding implies that the demand curve for innovation investments of certain firms in equilibrium can be locally upward-sloping. We show that at the industry level, both average innovation input and output demonstrate inverted-U shaped responses to increasing subsidies but with differing turning points. Notably, an increase in average innovation input may be accompanied by a decrease in average innovation output. These findings cast doubts on the interpretation of existing empirical evidences on firm and industry responses to innovation subsidies, most of which assume away treatment effect heterogeneity and equilibrium feedbacks.
本文探究了财经媒体新闻文本情绪与股票市场之间的关联。我们综合Loughran and MacDonald（2011）词典、word2vec算法和人工筛选等方法构建了中文金融文本情感词典，然后用该词典提取了中国股票市场的媒体文本情绪。我们发现媒体文本情绪可以很好地衡量我国股票市场投资者情绪的变化，该指标在样本内和样本外都对股票回报具有显著的预测能力。这一指标的预测能力强于常用的宏观经济指标或历史均值预测。此外，文本情绪指标对一些宏观经济指标也有显著的预测能力。