EDUCATION

Ph.D., Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, USA, 2005-2010
M.A., International Politics, Peking University, Beijing, China, 2000-2003
B.A., International Politics and Economics, Peking University, Beijing, China, 1996-2000

CURRENT & PAST POSITIONS

Professor, School of International Studies, Peking University, 2022-
Professor, Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University, 2014-2022
Founding Director, Tsinghua International Relations Data & Computing Lab, 2017-now
Resident Scholar, the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, 2013-2022
Vice Dean, Institute for International Relations, 2016-2020
Vice Chair, Department of International Relations, 2015-2018
Co-director, the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, 2013-2016
Visiting Associate Research Scholar, the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, 2019
Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University. 2012-2014
Assistant Professor, Department of Politics, Princeton University, 2010-2012

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES

Associate Editor, Political Analysis, 2018-now
Associate Editor, Japanese Journal of Political Science, 2019-now
Associate Editor, World Politics, 2011-2013
Committee Chair, John T. Williams Prize Committee, the Society for Political Methodology, 2018-2019
Committee Member,Degree Committee in Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, 2015-2022
Program Committee of Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, 2022
Program Committee of Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology, 2013-now
Internationalization Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2019-now
Gosnell Prize Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2013-2015
Diversity Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2011-2013
Poster Award Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2010-2011

RESEARCH

Monograph

Xun Pang, The Impact of the BRICS on Global Governance: Aid and Development Cooperation (In Chinese), World Affairs Press, 2016.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Xun Pang and Licheng Liu, “A Bayesian Multifactor Spatio-Temporal Model for Estimating Time-Varying Network Interdependence,” Political Science Research & Methods, accepted.

Xun Pang, Licheng Liu and Yiqing Xu, “A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies,” Political Analysis, Vol.30, No.2, 2022.

Xun Pang, “Identification and Credibility in Social Science Research,” China Social Science Review (in Chinese), Issue 3, 2021.

Xun Pang and Qingqian He, “Mapping the International System: A Network Analysis of Structural Power in Production Networks,” Social Sciences in China (in Chinese), Issue 9, pp.26-46, 2021.

Shuai Wang and Xun Pang, “Global Value Chains and Political Risk to Foreign Direct Investment,” World Economy and Politics (in Chinese), No.8, pp. 134-154, 2021.

Xun Pang and Chong Chen, “The Hirschman Effect of China’s Bilateral Cross-Currency SWAP Agreements,” World Economy and Politics (in Chinese), No.6, pp.132-155, 2020.

Chong Chen and Xun Pang, “Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Terrorist Attacks in Africa: A Split Population Duration Modeling with Geocoded Data,” Foreign Affairs Review (in Chinese), No.2, pp.82-115, 2020.

Xun Pang and Ziye Liu, “Tracing China-US Relationship with Machine-Coded Event Data: Reciprocity, Policy Inertia, and Third Party’s Influence,” World Economy and Politics (in Chinese), No.5, pp.53-79, 2019.

Xun Pang and Shuai Wang, “The International Influence of China’s Foreign Aid: The Case of Vote-Buying in the United Nations General Assembly,” Social Sciences in China (in Chinese), No.3, pp.181-203, 2017.

Xun Pang, “Revealing Biases in the Power of Indicators: A Causal Analysis of the IEG Ratings of Aid Project Implementation Performance,” World Economy and Politics (in Chinese), No.11, pp.130-155, 2017.

Xun Pang, “Statistical Prediction in International Relations: An Example of Conflict Prediction,” Quarterly Journal of International Politics (in Chinese), Vol.2, No.3, pp.1-32, 2017.

Xun Pang, Lida Liu and Stephanie Ma, “China’s Network Strategy for Seeking Great Power Status,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 10, Issue 1, pp.1-29, 2017.

Xun Pang, “Shared Challenges and Solutions: The Common Future of Comparative Politics and Quantitative Methodology,” Chinese Political Science Review, Vol.1, No.3, pp. 472-488, 2016.

Xun Pang, “A Bayesian Dynamic Model for Analyzing Path-Dependence,” Social Science Research (in Chinese), Vol.1, Issue. 1, 2016.

Stephen Chaudion, Helen V. Milner, and Xun Pang, “International Systems and Domestic Politics: Linking Complex Theories with Empirical Models in International Relations,” International Organization, Volume 69, Issue 2, pp.275-309, 2015.

Xun Pang and Yikun He, “US Hegemony and International Institutions: ’Power-vs-Autonomy’ in Regional Development Banks,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.9, 2015.

Xun Pang and Jiayun Quan, “Understanding and Measuring Relational Power: A Network Strategy,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No. 6, pp.39-64, 2015.

Xun Pang, “Varying Responses to Common Shocks and Complex Cross-Sectional Dependence: Dynamic Multilevel Modeling with Multifactor Error Structures for Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data,” Political Analysis, Vol. 22, Issue 4, pp.464-496, 2014.

Xun Pang, “Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War: A Bayesian Dynamic Multilevel Analysis,” in Ivan Jeliazkov and Xin-She Yang ed. Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences, ISBN: 978-1-118-77121-1. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. pp. 39-66, 2014.

Xun Pang and Yikun He, “Why Foreign Aid is an Ineffective Tool of Foreign Policy: Bureaucratic Politics and U.S. Foreign Assistance,” Foreign Affairs Review (in Chinese), No. 3, pp.107-135, 2014.

Xun Pang, “Misunderstandings of Quantitative Methods: Concepts, Principles, and Practices,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.1, pp.5-25, 2014.

Xun Pang, “Emerging Donors: A Vertical Paradigm of Foreign Development Aid,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.5, pp.31-54, 2013.

Xun Pang, Barry Friedman, Andrew D. Martin and Kevin M. Quinn,“Endogenous Jurisprudential Regimes,” Political Analysis, Vol. 20, No.3, pp. 417-436, 2012.

Xun Pang, “Strategies for Solving Collective Action Problems in Global Public Goods Provision,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.7, pp.24-42, 2012.

Xun Pang, “Modeling Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation in Binary TSCS Data: A Bayesian Multilevel Model with AR(p) Errors,” Political Analysis, Vol.18, No.4, pp.470-498, 2010.

Xun Pang, “Energy Security as International Politics,” Quarterly Journal of International Politics (in Chinese), No.2, , pp.64-89, 2007.

Xun Pang “Role, Identify, and Foreign Policy Making: A Dynamic Analytical Framework,” International Politics Quarterly (in Chinese), No. 1, pp.133-143, 2006

Xun Pang “Signaling Risk-Taking Willingness in Crisis Bargaining in International Relations,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.1, pp.89-97, 2005.

Zicheng Ye and Xun Pang, “A Comparative Study on International Relations Theories in Modern Times and Wisdoms in the Ancient China,” World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.12, 2001.

Under Review

Xun Pang and Luwei Ying, “Clash of Ideologies? Evidence from US-China Competition in Voting Coalition Formation in United Nations General Assembly”.

Work in Process

Licheng Liu and Xun Pang, “Bayesian Causal Inference with Presence of Interference for Longitudinal Network Data”.

James R. Hollyer, Xun Pang, B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland,“International Organizations and Economic Transparency”.

Qi Liu, Xun Pang, and James Raymond Vreeland, “The Effect of China’s Cross-Currency Swap Agreements on Preferences in World Affairs”.

Xun Pang, Quantitative Research Methods for Social Sciences (textbook, in Chinese), contracted with Higher Education Press.

Xun Pang, Theory and Methods: Predicting Geopolitical Risks in the Era of Globalization (Monograph, in Chinese).

HONORS & GRANTS

Honors

Boya Young Scholar Award, Peking University, 2022-

Changjiang Young Scholar Award, the Ministry of Education, China, 2016 (Fellowship from 2016 to 2020).

The John T. Williams Dissertation Prize by the Society for Political Methodology for the best dissertation proposal in political methodology, for “A Bayesian Probit Hierarchical Model with AR(p) Errors and Non-nested Clustering: Studying Sovereign Creditworthiness and Political Institutions,” 2009.

The Society for Political Methodology Poster Award for the Best Poster presented at the Annual Meet- ing of the Society for Political Methodology, for “Binary and Ordinal Time Series with AR(p) Errors: Bayesian Model Determination for Latent High-Order Markov Processes,” 2009.

Selected Grants

PI of Key Program of National Social Science Fund of China, “Theory and Methods for Predicting Geo-Political Risks,” 2017-2022.

PI of Area Studies Grants, the Ministry of Education of China, “ International Security Studies: A Big Data Approach,” 2017-2018.

PI of Basic Research Grants, the Tsinghua University, 2012-2017.
PI of Humanities and Social Sciences Research Fund, China’s Ministry of Education, “ BRICS’ Development Aid: Modalities, Strategies, and Cooperation,” 2013-2017.

PI of Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development Research Grant for “Political Risk of Oversea Direct Investment by Enterprises in the Energy Industry,” 2013-2014.

PI of Research Grants, the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, “The Rise of China and the Changing World,” 2013-now.

PI of  The Mamdouha  S. Bobst Center for Peace and Justice, Princeton University, Faculty Research Grant, 2010-2011.

Co-PI of National Science Foundation Grant SES-0918320, “Doctoral Dissertation Research: Discrete Time-Series Cross-Section Models of Political Economy,” 2009-2010.

National Science Foundation Travel Support Award, annual conference of the Society for Political Methodology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, July, 2010.

National Science Foundation Travel Support Award, UseR annual conference, Rennes, France, July 8th- 11th, 2009.

National Science Foundation Travel Support Award, annual conference of the Society for Political Methodology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, July, 2008.

CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS & INVITED TALKS (International only)

Conference Presentations (Since 2014)

“Causal Inference with Longitudinal Network Data: A Model-Based Approach to Network Interference and Outcome Interdependence,” Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July 2022, St. Louis, USA.

“A Causal-Predictive Machine Learning Method with Temporal Convolutional Networks for Panel Data,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology (virtual), January 2022.

“Bayesian Causal Inference for Observational Longitudinal Network Data with Interference and Interde- pendence,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology (virtual), January 2022.

“A Bayesian Strategic Statistical Estimator for Analyzing US-China Competitive Vote Alignment For- mation in UNGA,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology (virtual), January 2021.

“A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies: A Dynamic Multilevel Latent Factor Model with Hierarchical Shrinkage,” Stanford Online Causal Inference Seminar, July 21, 2020.

“A Bayesian Method for Modeling Dynamic Network Influence with TSCS Data,” Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July 2020, Toronto, Canada (virtual).

“Bayesian Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data: A Dynamic Multilevel Latent Factor Model with Hierarchical Shrinkage,” Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July 2020, Toronto, Canada (virtual).

“A Bayesian Multilevel Model with Time-Varying Spatial Autoregrresive Coeffificient,” Annual Meeting of the American Association of Political Science, September 2019, Washington D.C., USA.

“Economic Interdependence and Conflict on International Rivers in the Era of GVC,” Annual Meeting of the American Association of Political Science, September 2019, Washington D.C., USA.

“TSCS Causal Inference Using Bayesian Dynamic Multilevel State– Space Models,” Annual Meeting of the American Association of Political Science, September 2019, Washington D.C., USA.

“Measuring Globalization From Perspective of Global Value Chains: A Decomposition Method For Global Input-Output Table,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology, January 2019, Kyoto, Japan.

“Economy-On-Industry Dependency in Global Value Chains and Protection of Direct Foreign Invest- ment,” Annual Meeting of the American Association of Political Science, September 2018, San Francisco, USA.

“Agricultural Aid and Deforestration: A Causal Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data of Sierra Leone,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology, January 2018, Seoul, South Korea.

“China’s Network Strategy for Seeking Great Power Status,” Asian Political Methodology Meeting, Jan- uary 2017, Sydney, Australia.

“Modeling Evolution of Connectivity and Interdependence: A Bayesian Multilevel Spatial Model with a Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Coefficient,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology, January 2016, Beijing, China.

“Consequence of Chinese Aid to Africa: How American Aid Becomes Less Effective in UNGA Vote Buying,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology, January 2016, Beijing, China.

“Common Shocks and Spatial Dependence: A Dynamic Hierarchical Model with a Multifactor Error Structure,” Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July, 2014, the University of Georgia, USA.

“Dissimilarity of Trade Network Positions and Foreign Policy Divergence: Structure Or Strategy?” At the conference on “Is the Rise of China a Threat to its Neighbors and the World?” Tsinghua University, July 2014, Beijing, China.

“An Extended Spatial Model For Explaining How Connectivity of a System Changes Over Time,” Annual Meeting of Asian Political Methodology, January 2014, Tokyo, Japan.

Invited Talks

“The Strategic Logic of Conflicting Economic Statecrafts: US-China Aid Spending Rivalry and UNGA Voting,” the International Relations Faculty Colloquium, Princeton University, November 25, 2019.

“The Strategic Logic of Conflicting Economic Statecrafts: US-China Aid Spending Rivalry and UNGA Voting,” the Security, Peace, and Conflict Workshop, Duke University, November 12, 2019.

“Bayesian Predictive Synthesis For Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Section Data: A Factor Model Approach with Hierarchical Shrinkage,” the Applied Statistics Workshop, Harvard University, Oct. 30, 2019.

“A Bayesian Group-Multifactor Spatio-Temporal Model for Identifying and Explaining Social Effects With Longitudinal Network Data,” the Political Methodology Speaker Series, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Oct. 29, 2019.

“A Bayesian Group-Multifactor Spatio-Temporal Model for Identifying and Explaining Social Effects With Longitudinal Network Data,” the Quantitative Social Science Colloquium, Princeton University, Oct. 18, 2019.

“Bayesian Predictive Synthesis For Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Section Data: A Factor Model Approach with Hierarchical Shrinkage,” the Bayesian Inference in Political Science Workshop, Washington University in St. Louis, Oct. 2, 2019.

“Spike and Slab Prior Distributions for Simultaneous Bayesian Hypothesis Testing, Model Selection, and Prediction, of Nonlinear Outcomes,” University of Rochester, April 8, 2011.

TEACHING

Courses Taught at Tsinghua

Research Design in International Relations (undergraduate), Tsinghua University
Global Economy & World Politics (undergraduate level), Tsinghua University
Introduction to International Political Economy (undergraduate level), Tsinghua University Open Economy Politics (graduate level), Tsinghua University

Political Economy of Development (graduate level), Tsinghua University
Empirical Analysis in International Relations (graduate level), Tsinghua University

Courses Taught at Princeton

Applied Quantitative Analysis V: Multilevel Modeling (graduate level), Princeton University, 2011, Fall

Applied Quantitative Analysis I: Probabilities and Statistics (graduate level), Princeton University, 2011, Fall

Quantitative Analysis in International Relations (undergraduate level), Princeton University, 2011, Fall

Applied Quantitative Analysis II: Linear and Generalized Linear Models (undergraduate level), Princeton University, 2011, Spring

Applied Quantitative Analysis IV: Bayesian Statistics (graduate level), Princeton University, 2011, Spring

SOFTWARE

BPCausal: an R package for implementing Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies, https://github.com/liulch/bpCausal

BPNet: an R package for implementing Bayesian Multilevel Spatio-Temporal Model with Time-varying Autoregressive Coefficient and Multifactor Residuals (to be published)

GLMMarp: an R package for implementing the GLMM-AR(p) model developed in the dissertation project Dynamic Multilevel Analysis of Binary Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data in Political Economy https://cran.r-project.org/src/contrib/Archive/GLMMarp/

Last updated: August 2, 2022