Understanding how defaults correlate across firms is a persistent concern in risk management. In this paper, we apply covariate-dependent copula models to assess the dynamic nature of credit risk dependence, which we define as “credit risk clustering”. We also study the driving forces of the credit risk clustering in CEC business group in China. Our empirical analysis shows that the credit risk clustering varies over time and exhibits different patterns across firm pairs in a business group. We also investigate the impacts of systematic and idiosyncratic factors on credit risk clustering. We find that the impacts of the money supply and the short-term interest rates are positive, whereas the impacts of exchange rates are negative. The roles of the CPI on credit risk clustering are ambiguous. Idiosyncratic factors are vital for predicting credit risk clustering. From a policy perspective, our results not only strengthen the results of previous research but also provide a possible approach to model and predict the extreme co-movement of credit risk in business groups with financial indicators.

Background Firearm-related death rates and years of potential life lost (YPLL) vary widely between population subgroups and states. However, changes or inflections in temporal trends within subgroups and states are not fully documented. We assessed temporal patterns and inflections in the rates of firearm deaths and %YPLL due to firearms for overall and by sex, age, race/ethnicity, intent, and states in the United States between 1999 and 2016. Methods We extracted age-adjusted firearm mortality and YPLL rates per 100,000, and %YPLL from 1999 to 2016 by using the WONDER (Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database. We used Joinpoint Regression to assess temporal trends, the inflection points, and annual percentage change (APC) from 1999 to 2016. Results National firearm mortality rates were 10.3 and 11.8 per 100,000 in 1999 and 2016, with two distinct segments; a plateau until 2014 followed by an increase of APC = 7.2% (95% CI 3.1, 11.4). YPLL rates were from 304.7 and 338.2 in 1999 and 2016 with a steady APC increase in %YPLL of 0.65% (95% CI 0.43, 0.87) from 1999 to an inflection point in 2014, followed by a larger APC in %YPLL of 5.1% (95% CI 0.1, 10.4). The upward trend in firearm mortality and YPLL rates starting in 2014 was observed in subgroups of male, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanic whites and for firearm assaults. The inflection points for firearm mortality and YPLL rates also varied across states. Conclusions Within the United States, firearm mortality rates and YPLL remained constant between 1999 and 2014 and has been increasing subsequently. There was, however, an increase in firearm mortality rates in several subgroups and individual states earlier than 2014.