This paper addresses the methodological challenges of comparing the iron industries in the Qin-Han and Roman empires by creating "modeling domains" as a pragmatic and utilitarian approach. These domains, built from literary and archaeological evidence, represent generalized rules and frameworks, paired with diachronic, fragmented landscapes that depict the progressive acquisition and integration of lands with established metallurgical traditions. The paper argues that simply reaching this step is not enough, as each domain should be understood as part of a larger aggregative set, with an "external" dimension. The paper further discusses the distancing effect and the need for caution in cross-domain discussions, emphasizing the importance of historical and social specificity. The Roman-Parthian and Han-Nanyue examples are used to illustrate these challenges and opportunities. The paper concludes that the comparative approach should be ever-expanding, leading to a continual dialogue between domains and a deeper understanding of the dynamics of control, trade, and technological exchange in different historical and social contexts.
Using the census data from 2000-2015 and a pseudo-event study design, we estimate the motherhood penalty in China and explore its association with declining fertility. We find that one-third of working women leave their jobs in the year when they give birth, and the penalty persists for over eight years. The motherhood penalty increases significantly across almost all provinces during this period, and provinces with larger increases in the penalty experience greater declines in fertility rates. Using a mover-based design, we find that the rising motherhood penalty has caused a significant decline in the total fertility rate.
We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed for an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10 percent of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30 percent of the fertility decline.
Order type plays an important role in algorithmic trading and is a key factor of price impact. In this paper, we propose a new framework for studying the discrete price change process, which focuses on the impacts of aggressive orders (market orders and aggressive limit orders) and cancellations. The price change process is driven by states and events of best quotes, and we define the event-based price change as the "natural price change" (NPC). Under the framework, we propose a heteroscedastic linear econometric model for the NPC to explore the impact of different types of orders on the price dynamics. To verify the usability of our model and explore the driving factors of price dynamics, we conduct a thorough empirical analysis for 786 large-tick stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Empirical results statistically demonstrate that aggressive orders can introduce stronger impact on the NPC than cancellations. Meanwhile, splitting a big order into several small orders can lead to a larger NPC. Our framework can also be applied for the prediction of price change.
本文探究了财经媒体新闻文本情绪与股票市场之间的关联。我们综合Loughran and MacDonald（2011）词典、word2vec算法和人工筛选等方法构建了中文金融文本情感词典，然后用该词典提取了中国股票市场的媒体文本情绪。我们发现媒体文本情绪可以很好地衡量我国股票市场投资者情绪的变化，该指标在样本内和样本外都对股票回报具有显著的预测能力。这一指标的预测能力强于常用的宏观经济指标或历史均值预测。此外，文本情绪指标对一些宏观经济指标也有显著的预测能力。